WASHINGTON - Forecast International has previously stated that Airbus is tracking well behind its historical delivery cadence relative to its 2026 target of 870 aircraft, a trend that signals increasing execution risk and suggests the OEM may be forced to revise its annual guidance downward if performance does not improve.
While the surface-level data is undoubtedly concerning, the more pressing question is what specifically is driving this risk and preventing the manufacturer from remaining on pace to meet its annual goal.
The reality is that Airbus’s challenges do not appear to stem from production itself, because if the company were delivering aircraft at a rate more closely aligned with its year-to-date production, it would remain broadly in line with its historical pace and well-positioned to hit its annual target. Instead, the primary issue lies in a widening disconnect between production and final delivery, which is creating a bottleneck that prevents completed airframes from reaching customers.
So far this year, Airbus has converted only 70.4% of produced aircraft into deliveries, an underperformance driven largely by the A320neo family, which has seen a production to delivery rate of just 70.2% despite the program comprising the majority share of the company’s total output. While there will always be an inherent lead time and some degree of disconnect between total production and deliveries, the nearly 30% gap observed at this point in the year is significant. By comparison, Boeing has demonstrated a far more efficient pace by delivering 93.2% of its produced aircraft across all programs, with the 737 MAX leading the way at a 94.6% conversion rate. This performance keeps Boeing firmly on track to meet our annual delivery forecast and highlights a stark operational gap between the two OEMs.
Regardless of whether these delays are rooted in supply chain constraints, engine availability, cabin completion hurdles, or specific delivery timing issues, the ultimate outcome remains unchanged: the production-to-delivery disconnect has become the central obstacle to Airbus achieving its 2026 goals. Unless the company begins converting its mounting inventory into deliveries at a significantly faster pace, meeting the full-year target is simply not feasible. While the immediate priority must be working down the existing backlog of finished aircraft, maintaining the current share of produced to delivered aircraft would result in a continued build-up of undelivered inventory, which would inevitably push a portion of expected 2026 deliveries into 2027.
Ultimately, this is no longer a question of production rates, as Airbus is currently manufacturing aircraft at a pace that would theoretically support its annual delivery target. However, without a meaningful acceleration in the delivery process, the growing gap between production and deliveries will prevent the company from closing the gap needed to meet its annual delivery target.
