FI INSIGHT: U.K. THINK TANK INDICATES CHINA OUTPACES U.S. IN NUCLEAR SUB CONSTRUCTION
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Earlier this week, the United Kingdom's Institute for International and Strategic Studies (IISS) think tank issued a landmark report concluding that between 2021 and 2025, China launched, in both number and tonnage, more nuclear submarines than the United States. This assessment marks the first-ever instance of Beijing outpacing the U.S. in the construction of these advanced submarines, after years of indication that Chinese shipbuilding, of both surface and subsurface platforms, was moving with greater efficiency than that of the U.S.
According to IISS' analysis, between 2021 and 2025, China launched 10 nuclear submarines totaling 79,000 tonnes, while the U.S. launched only 7 hulls displacing 55,000 tonnes in comparison. China's launches during this period primarily constitute Project 093B (Shang III) attack submarines (SSNs) and Project 094 (Jin) ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs). The U.S. exclusively launched Virginia-class SSNs during the 2021-2025 window.
While this report should be a warning to decisionmakers in both government and industry in the West, there are several contextual factors to consider before sounding the alarm.
China's superior productive capacity has not come out of nowhere; Western intelligence and media have reported consistently on China's expansion of nuclear submarine construction facilities. Bohai Shipyard, China's only major nuclear submarine construction facilitity was massively expanded, with entire sections rebuilt over the past two decades, reflecting Beijing's goal of significantly enhanced production of these submarines. Despite its expansion, Bohai remains, for the moment, China's only dedicated nuclear submarine yard, whereas the U.S., despite backlogs and delays, operates two, in Groton, Conn., and Newport News, Va. These facilities are, however, smaller in size than the expanded Bohai facility.
Similarly, while China is edging ahead in the growth of nuclear submarine fleets, it is starting very much from behind. At the moment, China operates an estimated 16 nuclear submarines, including some aged units kept in reserve and at least one experimental platform not designed for actual deployment. While the increasing launch rate indicates a rapidly growing Chinese fleet, the U.S. currently operates 68 nuclear submarines, more than four times the number deployed by China.
Further considered is the quality difference between Chinese and U.S. submarines. China is currently finishing the production run of its Project 093B SSNs and 094 SSBNs, all of which are considered a generation or two behind the oldest active U.S. nuclear submarines. While Beijing plans to introduce newer Project 095 Sui SSNs and 096 Tang SSBNs in the coming decade, even these vessels are expected to lag behind the current generation of U.S. Virginia-class SSNs and Ohio-class SSBNs. China is moving faster, but they are doing so to close a large technical gap.
It is also worth noting that while China's nuclear submarine production booms, it reflects Beijing's production of both SSN and SSBN designs, whereas the U.S. is currently only producing Virginia-class SSNs. The U.S. will not begin launching new SSBN units until the planned Columbia class finishes development, with a launch expected around 2028, and full-rate production not likely until 2031 at the earliest.
China's growing nuclear-powered submarine fleet is an important development for the country, however, its surpassing of the U.S. in construction rate is not necessarily a sign of true naval dominance. China is still working to overcome a major deficit in technical quality as well as a massive volume difference, underpinned by a lack of institutional experience in the operation of these sophisticated platforms. While the incoming generation of Chinese nuclear boats may pose a more realistic challenge to U.S. naval interests, the IISS' recent report should not be taken to indicate that China is overtaking the U.S. as the world's foremost undersea power. The trend certainly shows Beijing's growing productive and undersea capabilities, however in this arena, quantity does not necessarily equal quality.