Shopping Cart  |  Intelligence Center


HOME PRODUCTS & SERVICES MEDIA CENTER CONSULTING SERVICES DEMOS SALES OFFICES OUR COMPANY LOG IN

AEROSPACE & DEFENSE ELECTRONICS
AIRLINES, COMMERCIAL AVIATION & MAINTENANCE
AVIATION ENGINES, PROPULSION & AUXILIARY POWER UNITS
INDUSTRIAL & MARINE GAS TURBINES
INTERNATIONAL MILITARY MARKETS & BUDGETS - ASIA, AUSTRALIA & PAC RIM/EURASIA
INTERNATIONAL MILITARY MARKETS & BUDGETS - EUROPE
INTERNATIONAL MILITARY MARKETS & BUDGETS - NORTH AMERICA
MILITARY AIRCRAFT
MILITARY VEHICLES, ORDNANCE, MUNITIONS, AMMUNITION & SMALL ARMS
MISSILES & MISSILE SYSTEMS
NAVAL SHIPS AND OPERATING SYSTEMS
NON-US AEROSPACE/DEFENSE COMPANIES & CONTRACTS
REGIONAL, BUSINESS & GENERAL AVIATION
ROTORCRAFT
SPACECRAFT, LAUNCH VEHICLES & SATELLITES
US AEROSPACE/DEFENSE COMPANIES & CONTRACTS
Drones and Unmanned Systems - Air, Sea, Land, Micro & Robot Systems
UTILITIES, ROTATING MACHINERY & POWER GENERATION

Spacecraft, Launch Vehicles & Satellites
 
ELON MUSK REVEALS IDENTITY OF PASSENGER TO THE MOON AND UPDATES BFR PROGRESS
Tuesday, September 18, 2018
Click image for a larger picture

Artist's rendition of BFS orbiting the Moon

Source: SpaceX


Artist's rendition of BFS orbiting the Moon

Source: SpaceX


Close
NEWTOWN, Conn. -- In a livestreamed presentation, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk announced that Japanese billionaire Yusaku Maezawa will be the first paying passenger aboard the company's developmental Big Falcon Rocket (BFR). Maezawa plans to fly aboard the BFR on a week-long mission that will orbit the Moon in 2023. Maezawa reserved an entire rocket so he could take along artists who will use the experience to inspire their work.

Musk also used the presentation to provide updates on the progress of the BFR and the passenger/cargo stage called the Big Falcon Ship, or BFS. There have been a few changes since the last major announcement was made last year at the International Astronautical Congress (IAC) in Adelaide, Australia.

The BFR is now planned to be about 118-meters (387 feet) tall, up from the 106 meters (347 feet) planned last year. It will also include three tail fins along with additional fins in the front. Most of the fins will act as actuated flaps that will help brake the BFS as it enters atmospheres. However, a third fin was added to the rear of the spacecraft. Musk indicated that this was largely done for aesthetic reasons.

More importantly, Musk announced that the BFR will be able to transport up to 100 metric tons (220,000 lbs) into Low Earth Orbit (LEO). While a 100 metric ton capacity would make the BFR the most capable launch vehicle in the market today, it represents a significant decline from previous plans of 150 metric tons. It also falls short of the 140 metric tons (310,000 lbs) that the Saturn V was able to carry to LEO.

Musk continues to project ambitious development schedules for the BFR. Maezawa's Moon mission is planned for 2023 and Musk expects a high number of crewless flights before that mission takes place. According to Musk's schedule, the BFS will begin hover flights from SpaceX's Brownsville, Texas sight in 2019. High altitude, high velocity flights will begin in 2020. The BFR booster will begin testing in 2020 and orbital flights will begin in "two to three years."

It's unlikely that SpaceX will stick to that schedule. The Falcon Heavy was delayed multiple times after its initial introduction in 2011, ultimately taking seven years before its first launch. Even if BFR development takes the same amount of time as the Falcon Heavy, a first orbital launch would not take place until 2023. With more test launches required, a Moon mission wouldn't happen for a few years after that. In addition, the BFR is a more complex development project than the Falcon Heavy. For example, BFR will use new Raptor engines, while Falcon Heavy borrowed Merlin engines from the Falcon 9.

During the conference, more questions were raised regarding financing than were answered. During the question and answer session, Musk said that he expected BFR development costs to total $5 billion, with costs not going above $10 billion. However, he did not provide specific information regarding financing sources. Musk said that current operations, such as satellite launches and space station resupply missions, will provide the bulk of funds. He also said that BFR customers who prepay will help cover development costs. To that end, Musk indicated that Maezawa will cover a "material percent" of the development costs of the BFR.

There are reasons to be leery of SpaceX's funding plans. Musk indicated that SpaceX is spending only 5 percent of its resources on BFR development right now. While SpaceX is most likely profitable, it is not generating enough cash to fund a $5 billion to $10 billion project on its own. Based on 2016 internal targets, SpaceX expects to return a 3 percent profit on about $1.8 billion of revenue. Reusing Falcon 9s will increase profits from those targets, but it still will not be enough to fund multi-billion dollar R&D projects.

Another worrying comment was regarding Musk's plan for the Starlink satellite network. Starlink is SpaceX's planned entry into the small satellite communications market. Musk indicated that he plans to use profits from the network to help fund BFR development. However, that network is not operational. Starlink will likely be yet another cost for SpaceX as it works to develop and launch satellites.

This is all not to say that BFR will not eventually fly. It's never a good idea to bet against Elon Musk, and SpaceX has a long track record of proving naysayers wrong. However, as is common for Elon Musk projects, the timeframe is ambitious. Tight funding and the need to focus on multiple projects at the same time will delay the launch of the BFR, so that a 2023 Moon mission appears unlikely. A first orbital launch will likely not occur until the mid- to late-2020s, with a Moon mission occurring sometime after that.

Source:  Forecast International
Associated URL: www.forecastinternational.com
Source Date: September 18, 2018
Author: B. Ostrove, Analyst 
Posted: 09/18/2018

 
 
GALILEO FULL OPERATIONAL CAPABILITY EXPECTED FOR 2021
Tuesday, September 18, 2018
Click image for a larger picture

Four Galileo satellites launching aboard Ariane 5

Source: ESA/CNES/Arianespace/Optique Video du CSG


Four Galileo satellites launching aboard Ariane 5

Source: ESA/CNES/Arianespace/Optique Video du CSG


Close
NEWTOWN, Conn. -- Galileo satellites are being delivered into orbit, and ESA expects to declare the system operational within a year. Although the first two satellites were inserted into the wrong orbit due to a Soyuz launch vehicle anomaly, their orbits were eventually corrected enough to allow them to be valid parts of the overall constellation.

Original plans called for a total of 30 operational satellites to be built under three contracts with OHB System AG. Cost overruns caused the third contract (expected in late 2016) to be delayed until June 2017.

The first contract was awarded in January 2010 for EUR566 million, covering the production of 14 satellites. The second contract for eight satellites - worth €255 million - was awarded in February 2012. The third contract signed in June 2017 for €324 million is expected to deliver eight Full Operational Capability (FOC) satellites. Four months later, the European Commission exercised a contract option for four additional satellites.

The latest contracts enable ESA to surpass its goal of operating a network of 30 FOC satellites. All FOC satellites are expected to be delivered by 2021.

Along with OHB's four initial In-Orbit Validation (IOV) satellites, these contracts bring the total number of satellites under OHB contract to 38.

With an expected 12-year lifespan, aging, in-orbit Galileo satellites will start to need replacement early in the next decade. Replacement deliveries are expected to begin around 2024.

Source:  Forecast International
Associated URL: www.forecastinternational.com
Source Date: September 18, 2018
Author: B. Ostrove, Analyst 
Posted: 09/18/2018

 
 
USAF SELECTS LOCKHEED MARTIN FOR GPS III FOLLOW-ON CONTRACT
Monday, September 17, 2018
Click image for a larger picture

Lockheed Martin will build follow-ons to its GPS III birds

Source: U.S. Air Force


Lockheed Martin will build follow-ons to its GPS III birds

Source: U.S. Air Force


Close
ARLINGTON, Va. -- The U.S. Air Force has selected Lockheed Martin to build 22 GPS III Follow-On (GPS IIIF) satellites. The Air Force officially announced the selection on September 14, saying that it will award the aerospace company up to $7.2 billion to build the satellites. The first GPS IIIF satellite is expected to be available for launch in 2026.

Lockheed Martin is the prime contractor for the first batch of 10 GPS III satellites. However, the Air Force decided to open a tender for the remaining 22 satellites in the hopes of reducing costs and increasing delivery speed. In May 2016, the Air Force awarded production feasibility assessment contracts with Lockheed Martin, Boeing, and Northrop Grumman

While the Air Force hoped to select one of the three to eventually build 22 satellites, Boeing and Northrop Grumman ultimately dropped out of the competition, leaving Lockheed Martin as the only company to officially submit a proposal in April 2018.

Lockheed Martin will introduce new capabilities to the GPS IIIF satellites. Each satellite will feature improved anti-jam support, a fully digital navigation payload, a laser retro-reflector array to improve positioning, and a new search and rescue payload.

Source:  USAF
Associated URL: https://www.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/1633793/af-announces-selection-of-gps-iii-follow-on-contract/
Source Date: September 17, 2018
Author: B. Ostrove, Analyst 
Posted: 09/17/2018

 

NOTICE TO USERS

Warranty: Forecast International makes no guarantees as to the veracity or accuracy of the information provided. It warrants only that the information, which has been obtained from multiple sources, has been researched and screened to the best of the ability of our staff within the limited time constraints. Forecast International encourages all clients to use multiple sources of information and to conduct their own research on source data prior to making important decisions. All URLs listed were active as of the time the information was recorded. Some hyperlinks may have become inactive since the time of publication.

Technical Support: Phone (203)426-0800 e-mail support@forecast1.com

Subscription Information: Phone (203)426-0800 or (800)451-4975; FAX (203)426-0223 (USA) or e-mail sales@forecast1.com

Aerospace/Defense News Highlights is published by Forecast International, 22 Commerce Road, Newtown CT 06470 USA. Articles that list Forecast International as the source are Copyrighted © 2018. Reproduction in any form, or transmission by electronic or other means, is prohibited without prior approval from the publisher.

Forecast International invites all interested companies to submit their announcements and press releases for review and inclusion in our Intelligence Letters.

Contact: Ray Peterson, Director of Research
E-Mail: Ray.Peterson@forecast1.com
Phone: 800-451-4975
FAX: 203-270-8919



HOME PRODUCTS & SERVICES MEDIA CENTER CONTACT US PRIVACY STATEMENT TERMS AND CONDITIONS

Forecast International © 2018 22 Commerce Rd Newtown, CT 06470 USA Phone: 203.426.0800 Toll-Free: 800.451.4975 (USA & Canada) Fax: 203.426.0223 info@forecast1.com