NEWTOWN, Conn. - Low-rate serial production of the Type 10 main battle tank is ongoing in Japan, exclusively for domestic procurement by the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force.

The JGSDF's initial procurement objective for the Type 10 MBT stood at an ambitious 550-600 units. However, decisions resulting from subsequent strategic and budgetary assessments conducted by the Japanese government and Ministry of Defense throughout the 2010s eventually served to not only reduce the planned scale of Type 10 procurement by a considerable margin, but to lay the groundwork for a significant restructuring of Japan's entire armored force structure.

Over the course of the forecast period, the Japanese MoD plans to reduce the total quantity of tanks in active service with the JGSDF by over half, ultimately leaving the service with a force of just 300 operational MBTs by 2024.

Although the implementation of this policy will see the JGSDF's tank fleet numerically reduced to its lowest level in decades, the MoD hopes that the modern capabilities of the Type 10 and the deployment of the new Maneuver Combat Vehicle (MCV) in a support role will ultimately result in the JGSDF fielding an armored force that is better suited to meet Japan's modern defense requirements.

As outlined in the MoD's FY14-FY18 Medium-Term Defense Plan published in late 2013, the JGSDF plans to accumulate around 95 Type 10 MBTs by FY18. In the near term, Japan intends to acquire an additional 10 Type 10s in FY15, slightly less than originally requested. This fleet of MBTs will form the state-of-the-art core of the JGSDF's tank force through 2024, buttressed by the service's considerable existing stocks of capable Type 90 designs.

A modest quantity of the JGSDF's increasingly antiquated Type 74 MBTs will remain in active service through the forecast period, but the steady acquisition of new-build Type 10 MBTs and MCV tank destroyers should allow the JGSDF to retire the remainder of its Type 74 inventories by 2024-2025. Although the eventual withdrawal of the Type 90 design has significantly receded in importance as a priority of the JGSDF, it is likely that the service still maintains its long-term ambition of replacing the bulk of its Type 90 stocks with new-build Type 10s over the coming decades. As a result, we anticipate that periodic follow-on orders for modest quantities of the Type 10 will continue beyond 2018.

The decision of the Japanese government and MoD to alter their initial procurement designs for the Type 10 is demonstrative of the ongoing reorientation of Japan's strategic priorities toward the defense of the maritime sphere and the country's air space.

After decades of relative dormancy, the territorial dispute between Japan and neighboring China over control of the Diaoyu/Senkaku Island chain has become inflamed in recent years, with China expressing increasingly assertive claims of ownership over the contested islands and rising nationalist sentiment in both nations. The inclusion of the islands within China's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) established in 2013 further intensified these regional tensions.

Although the prospect of military conflict over these islands remains remote, both countries have hastened their efforts to prepare for a potential confrontation in the maritime sphere.

The Abe administration's gradual enlargement of the Japanese defense budget over the past three fiscal years and its subtle alterations to the country's post-war constitution represent significant milestones in the development of a new and more assertive Japanese security posture and approach to regional affairs. Nevertheless, there remain considerable economic and political limitations on both the speed and scale of the country's military growth.

With regard to unit price, the Type 10 MBT's advanced weapons and technical systems and the high quality of its individual components and materials make it one the most expensive armored vehicle products in the world.

The concept of procuring large quantities of MBTs no longer conforms to Japan's security needs and predominant defense objective - namely, the safeguarding of its interests and influence in the East China Sea. As a result, the Abe government's defense budget increases have primarily prioritized the development and acquisition of new naval vessels and aircraft for the country's Maritime and Air Self-Defense Force branches.

For the JGSDF, this shift in strategic policy has meant an increased doctrinal emphasis on the maturing of its rapid mobility and deployment capabilities and the accelerated development of the service's new brigade-size amphibious operations force.

In terms of procurement, the JGSDF is now primarily directing its focus toward the acquisition of the 8x8 MCV wheeled tank destroyer. Serial production of the new vehicle is scheduled to begin in 2016. Although the combat capabilities of the Type 10 are highly robust, its steep operating costs and the considerable logistical hurdles involved in transporting such vehicles make it fit unevenly into the JGSDF's revised defense framework.

By contrast, the more affordable MCV design possesses a greater capacity for rapid deployment to potential conflict zones, while also retaining a potent offensive capability due to its integration of a 105mm cannon.

The MCV is fully air-transportable via Kawasaki's C-2 transport plane, but the aircraft's payload limitations and production delays may limit the operational utility of this feature.

The JGSDF intends to acquire an initial 99 MCV vehicles through 2018. The MoD's preliminary procurement objective for the MCV falls in the range of 200 to 300 units over the next decade.

The MoD and JGSDF hope that this level of MCV procurement will not only prove adequate in filling the numerical gap left by the retirement of large quantities of the JGSDF's traditional tank inventories, but also grant the service a considerably enhanced degree of operational flexibility.

Source: Forecast International Weapons Group
Author: T. Dolzall, Military Vehicles Analyst