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FULL SPEED AHEAD FOR ANTI-SHIP MISSILE MARKET
Sep 13, 2017
AIRCRAFT CARRIERS MARK GROWTH OF REGIONAL NAVIES
Sep 12, 2017
TWO SHIP COLLISIONS RAISE QUESTIONS
Aug 24, 2017
RISING TENSIONS IN THE KOREAN PENINSULA HIGHLIGHT THAAD MISSILE'S KEY ROLE
Aug 10, 2017
FORECAST INTERNATIONAL LAUNCHES IMPROVED U.S. DEFENSE BUDGET DATABASE
Aug 08, 2017
FORECAST INTERNATIONAL: BOEING ON A ROLL; BOTH CIVIL AND MILITARY MARKETS REMAIN STRONG
Aug 01, 2017
DEFENSE FIRMS SEE STRONG GROWTH POTENTIAL AS UPSWING BEGINS
Jul 18, 2017
COMMERCIAL COMSAT MAKERS CASHING IN ON HOT MARKET
Jul 12, 2017
FORECAST INTERNATIONAL: 15-YEAR WORLD AVIATION TURBOSHAFT MARKET WORTH $34 BILLION
Jun 20, 2017
FORECAST INTERNATIONAL PREDICTS $4.15 TRILLION LARGE JETLINER MARKET OVER 15 YEARS
Jun 19, 2017
FOLLOWING U.S. ATTACK ON SYRIAN AIR BASE, FI OFFERING DETAILED TOMAHAWK CRUISE MISSILE REPORT
Apr 07, 2017
POLITICS TO AFFECT SHAPE OF U.S. DEFENSE ELECTRONICS MARKET
Mar 28, 2017
FORECAST INTERNATIONAL: HIGHER DEFENSE BUDGETS LIKELY TO GIVE MEDIUM/HEAVY MILITARY ROTORCRAFT MARKET A LIFT
Mar 07, 2017
FORECAST INTERNATIONAL ISSUES 'LAUNCH VEHICLES: YEAR IN REVIEW 2016.' STAGE SET FOR RENEWED ACTIVITY IN 2017
Jan 30, 2017
FPSO CONSTRUCTION POWERING MECHANICAL DRIVE MARKET
Dec 13, 2016
ROLLS-ROYCE RULES THE NAVAL GAS TURBINE MARKET
Dec 12, 2016
FORECAST INTERNATIONAL RELEASES VERSION 3.1 OF ITS PLATINUM FORECAST SYSTEM
Dec 07, 2016
BUSINESS JET MARKET TO RESUME POSITIVE GROWTH TREND
Oct 31, 2016
SHORT-TERM GROWTH PROJECTED FOR LIGHT MILITARY ROTORCRAFT MARKET AIRBUS HELICOPTERS TO LEAD MARKET
Oct 13, 2016
FORECAST INTERNATIONAL PREDICTS A WORLD MARKET FOR 5,480 INDUSTRIAL POWER GENERATING GAS TURBINE ENGINES WORTH $105 BILLION OVER THE NEXT 10 YEARS
Oct 05, 2016

Press Release

Contact: Raymond Jaworowski, Senior Aerospace Analyst
Phone: (203) 426-0800
Fax: (203) 426-4262
Website: www.forecastinternational.com
E-mail: ray.jaworowski@forecast1.com
Forecast International, Inc.
22 Commerce Rd. Newtown, CT 06470 USA

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Forecast International Predicts $4.15 Trillion Large Jetliner Market Over 15 Years

PARIS AIR SHOW [June 19, 2017] – Forecast International projects that a total of 26,210 large commercial jetliners will be produced in the 15-year period from 2017 through 2031. The value of this production is estimated at $4.15 trillion in constant 2017 U.S. dollars.

Airbus and Boeing are projected to divide the market nearly equally over the forecast timeframe, thus maintaining the duopoly that has long characterized this market. Boeing is forecast to produce 12,399 large commercial airliners during the 15-year period, representing a 47.3 percent share of the market. Airbus is projected to build 12,211 aircraft for a market share of 46.6 percent. The remainder of the forecast production consists of a number of aircraft from other manufacturers, including the Bombardier CS300, the COMAC C919, and the Irkut MC-21.

Forecast International's market projections indicate that yearly production of large jetliners will increase from 2017 through 2020. Annual production is forecast to increase from 1,512 aircraft in 2017 to 1,783 in 2020. A cyclical downturn is expected in the 2021-2022 timeframe, with output falling to 1,600 aircraft in 2021 and 1,586 in 2022. Production is projected to resume rising in 2023, with annual output reaching 1,863 aircraft by 2030 before falling to 1,817 aircraft in 2031.

Order rates for large jet airliners have slowed in the past couple of years, but this is not expected to translate into lower production rates in the near term. According to Forecast International senior aerospace analyst Raymond Jaworowski, "Demand for new airliners is weakening due to economic concerns, political volatility, persistently low fuel prices, and slowing sales of soon-out-of-production legacy models. However, Airbus and Boeing are largely protected from market fluctuations by their order backlogs, which represent more than eight years' worth of production at current build rates."

Despite the slowdown in order rates, neither Airbus nor Boeing intends to reduce overall production in coming years. They are, in fact, planning near-term increases in output for a number of models. Jaworowski said, "Airbus and Boeing are able to increase production, in the face of weakening demand, due in large part to the big order backlogs. The two companies have also become skilled at such techniques as order overbooking and delivery slot reallocation, which help to avoid the need to reduce production as sales slow and cancellations increase."

Meanwhile, Airbus and Boeing are in the process of shifting from a period where their focus had been on the development of new products to a period where they are bringing these products into production and ramping up build rates. Examples of these new aircraft are the Airbus A320neo and A330neo families and the Boeing 737 MAX and 777X series.

Most of the new products that are being introduced by Airbus and Boeing represent replacements for existing aircraft rather than additions to the companies' product lines. Jaworowski said, "Managing the changeover from a family of popular legacy models to a line of new, improved versions can be one of the more difficult tasks that a manufacturer can undertake. In the narrowbody segment, the sheer size of the order backlogs will enable Airbus and Boeing to simply continue increasing build rates over the next few years. In the widebody segment, where sales volumes are lower, the task will be a bit more complex." He added, though, "In both segments, the long-term outlook is positive."

About Forecast International
Forecast International, Inc. is a leading provider of Market Intelligence and Analysis in the areas of aerospace, defense, power systems and military electronics. The firm, which publishes eight International Military Market services, also maintains a high posture of situational awareness and geopolitical analysis. Based in Newtown, Conn., USA, Forecast International specializes in long-range industry forecasts and market assessments used by strategic planners, marketing professionals, military organizations, and governments worldwide. Forecast International's resources and extensive base of experience can also be readily adapted and efficiently focused to fulfill a broad spectrum of civil and military consulting and special research requirements.

 


Contact Information
Ray Peterson
Vice President, Research & Editorial Services
Forecast International
22 Commerce Rd. Newtown, CT 06470 USA
(203) 426-0800
ray.peterson@forecast1.com.



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