Contact: Douglas Royce
Phone: (203) 426-0800
Fax: (203) 426-4262
Web site: www.forecast1.com
Forecast International, Inc.
22 Commerce Rd.
Newtown, CT 06470
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Forecast International Projects End of
Eclipse 500 Production
[October 28, 2008] — In a
new report to be issued in December, Forecast International has projected that
production of the Eclipse 500 will soon end. The Connecticut-based market
research firm believes that the aircraft’s manufacturer, Eclipse Aviation, will
not attract new investment necessary to allow it to continue making the
aircraft beyond the first quarter of 2009.
"Eclipse continues to produce
aircraft at a low rate as it seeks to preserve cash," said Forecast
International aircraft analyst Douglas Royce. "We have forecast production
of 162 Eclipse 500s during 2008. We believe that the company will be able to
push production out into early 2009 but will be forced to cease production
within the first quarter of 2009." Forecast International predicts only
about 12 Eclipse 500s will be produced in early 2009, and "even this
forecast may prove too optimistic," said Royce.
According to Forecast International, Eclipse Aviation’s business
plan depended on delivering a twin-jet aircraft at an extremely low price
relative to its competition. This low price was dependent on use of a
high-volume production strategy made possible by importing methods of
production from the technology and automotive industries. However, the
anticipated production ramp-up never occurred and the company has been unable
to realize the economies of scale it needs to meet its price target.
Until May of 2008, the list price of the Eclipse 500 was $1.52
million. Thereafter, the aircraft’s price increased to $2.15 million, but Eclipse
Aviation is required to deliver aircraft at the earlier, lower price to
customers who executed an Aircraft Purchase Agreement and paid the required 60%
total deposit. Every aircraft delivered under the old price is delivered at a
loss, Forecast International notes. At the moment, the company does not have
the financial resources to absorb these losses and survive.
To restructure its operations and reach profitability, Eclipse
Aviation has said publicly that it needs $200-$300 million in new equity investment.
With credit markets in the midst of a major crisis, Eclipse Aviation is seeking
funding at a time when bankers and investors are reluctant to pour hundreds of
millions of dollars into a company facing an uncertain future.
Eclipse is facing of host of new competitors in Very Light Jet
(VLJ) market. Florida-based DayJet, an air taxi service, accounted for about
half of the initial Eclipse backlog when it folded in Sept. 2008. Raising
prices any further to cover costs will also cause the company’s backlog to
contract. The business jet market overall is also entering a period in which
demand is expected to contract sharply in the near term, cutting sales for
every participant in the VLJ market.
"Under the circumstances, Forecast International believes
that securing new funding, while still possible, is unlikely," said Royce.
"Forecast International has cut its forecast for the Eclipse 500
International, Inc. (www.forecastinternational.com) is a
leading provider of Market Intelligence and Analysis in the areas of aerospace,
defense, power systems and military electronics. Based in Newtown,
Forecast International specializes in long-range industry forecasts and market
assessments used by strategic planners, marketing professionals, military
organizations, and governments worldwide. To arrange an interview with
Forecast International’s editors, please contact Ray Peterson,
Vice President, Research & Editorial Services (203)-426-0800, firstname.lastname@example.org.