FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Forecast International: Fighter Aircraft Market Worth $260B over Next 10 Years
July 18, 2022— In its new study "The Market for Fighter Aircraft," Forecast International projects manufacturers of fighter aircraft are forecast to build over 3,855 fighters from 2022 through 2031. The value of this production is estimated at over $281.4 billion in 2022 dollars. Production will top 400 aircraft by 2023 and then remain roughly at that level through 2027. Annual production will then decline each year through 2031.
The Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighter will account for the largest share of fighter production during the next decade, primarily due to demand from the Pentagon and U.S. allies in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has illustrated the need for a strike fighter that can operate in a high threat environment. Over the past 20 years, the overwhelming majority of air combat operations were conducted without much threat from local air defenses, but planners must now prepare to operate in more difficult environments.
The long-term outlook for the remaining U.S.-built fighters – the Boeing F-15 and F/A-18E/F Super Hornet and Lockheed Martin's F-16 – continues to improve. The U.S. Air Force is procuring a new, upgraded version of the F-15E, and Congress is likely to continue to buy more F/A-18E/F Super Hornets for the U.S. Navy. Lockheed Martin has also secured new customers for the latest version of its F-16 fighter as a lower-cost alternative to the F-35.
"The outlook for European competitors, including the Dassault Rafale, Eurofighter Typhoon, and Saab Gripen, is more mixed," said Forecast International Senior Aerospace Analyst Douglas Royce. "Dassault has received a wave of new orders recently for the Rafale, and the Typhoon will rely on orders from Germany and Spain to keep the line running over the long term, but the Gripen will remain in production at only a low rate unless Saab can secure new customers."
Russia's United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) continues to provide fighters to nations outside the U.S. and European defense spheres, though over the long term China could begin to compete with Russia for these customers. The economic sanctions imposed upon Russia following its invasion of Ukraine will undoubtedly affect Russian fighter exports, but to what degree and for how long remains unclear.
Work is also underway on the next generation of stealth fighters. While still in the concept development phase in the U.S. and Europe, new fighter programs in Japan, South Korea, and Turkey are expanding the diversity of production beyond traditional manufacturers.
Forecast International representatives will be available during the Farnborough International Airshow (Hall 3, Booth 2521) to demonstrate the company's extensive line of Aerospace & Defense Market Intelligence products, including Platinum Forecast System 4.4.
About Forecast International
Accurate and reliable market forecasts are more critical than ever to achieving success. For over 45 years, Forecast International has been setting the industry standard for defense and aerospace research and analysis. Our unmatched expertise has served our clients well when markets change rapidly in response to dramatic global events. FI remains steadfast in its mission of delivering actionable intelligence that reduces uncertainties and makes the future as predictable as it can be. Visit forecastinternational.com for details.
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