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FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Inadequate Funding Creating Defense Problems for Europe
NEWTOWN, Conn. [Oct. 29, 2007] — Defense spending continues
to be a relative afterthought throughout European capitals, despite the
increased demands placed on Europe’s militaries to participate in
out-of-theater operations under multiple banners. While many are willing to
assign their forces to peacekeeping and conflict intervention within NATO,
European Union or United Nations missions, where funding for
research-and-development or procurement is concerned, government enthusiasm
wanes.
In its new “Europe Market Overview,” Forecast International
raises questions as to whether the limited defense finances of European states
will be drained by participation in both NATO and EU defense structures and
whether the recent mushrooming of missions is sustainable.
Currently only four dual EU-NATO members have military
budgets that allocate the NATO minimum requisite of 2 percent of annual GDP for
defense: France, the United Kingdom, Bulgaria and Romania. The latter two are
the newest (and poorest) members of the EU and, while tasked with replacing
their aging Soviet-era equipment for NATO-compatible ware, their budgets
themselves are insufficient. Greece – typically one of the bigger defense
spenders in Europe – is reining in its budget, bringing it down to 1 percent of
GDP or less through 2015. Forecast International projects that, by 2011, total
defense spending across the European continent will amount to just under $300
billion.
The EU, which has no formal army of its own, declared its
first two “battlegroups” operational at the start of the new year. These
1,500-strong multinational rapid response groupings are largely envisioned to
lead peacekeeping or humanitarian operations and are considered by some a first
step toward the creation of a deployable 60,000-strong EU Corps under the
Helsinki Headline Goals of 1999. But the NATO Alliance, too, has its own NATO
Response Force (NRF) of 25,000 troops which was formed with the intent that it
would be deployable within days to conduct a variety of operations in
intemperate zones. However, NATO officials already have been forced to scale
back their ambitions in the face of the hard realities presented by its members’
smaller armies and tighter budgets, and believe the same issues will ultimately
plague the EU battlegroup effort.
“While the EU so far has been careful to avoid overlap with NATO
and serves to relieve the Alliance of less intense missions such as have been
seen in Bosnia-Herzegovina, it does bear watching as to whether limited defense
finances will be diluted by competition for the same funds,” says Dan Darling, Forecast
International Europe Military Markets analyst. “As it now stands, the European
dual EU-NATO members have a rough total of $234.34 billion allocated toward
defense among them for 2007, with the combined spending of France and the U.K.
representing almost 55 percent of that total. And this is only the financial
aspect – the manpower and equipment facets of each nation’s armed forces are
also severely strained, ultimately leaving two structures competing for the
same limited resources.”
The post-Cold War European inclination has been to cut force
totals in an effort to create more nimble, readily deployable militaries, while
also curbing defense expenditure. Meanwhile, Europe’s governments have summoned
these smaller forces to take on more missions with fewer resources. “Ultimately
this trend cannot continue on either the financial or manpower scale,
particularly as a new defense arm with separate demands takes root,” Darling
notes.
According to Forecast International, defense spending across
the entire European continent will reach only $266 billion in 2007, or about 58
percent of the U.S. baseline defense budget of $462 billion for the current
fiscal year. And it isn’t only the militaries that suffer from a shortage of
funds – many of these nations’ domestic defense industrial bases feel the
crunch from lack of state orders needed to sustain themselves.
“What you have today is a Europe that seeks to project
greater international involvement and security responsibility, whether through
defensive measures in Afghanistan or humanitarian or peacekeeping operations in
Lebanon, Kosovo and areas of Africa,” Darling continues. “Yet these
governments are asking more from their downsized militaries while providing
less by way of defense appropriations – perhaps out of reluctance to deviate
funds from more politically popular domestic social programs. So long as Europe’s
public at large lacks the perception of a distinct security threat, raising
defense spending will not be an immediate concern in European capitals, thus
forcing governments to confront hard choices such as scaling back the number of
missions, or through consensus altering the NATO (or EU) funding of these
operations whereby each member pays individually for their participation.”
Forecast International, Inc., is a leading provider of
Market Intelligence and Analysis in the areas of aerospace, defense, power
systems and military electronics. Based in Newtown, Conn., USA, Forecast
International specializes in long-range industry forecasts and market
assessments used by strategic planners, marketing professionals, military
organizations, and governments worldwide. To arrange an interview with
Forecast International’s editors, please contact Ray Peterson, Vice President,
Research & Editorial Services (203-426-0800, ray.peterson@forecast1.com).
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