NEWTOWN, Conn. - Serial production of the ZBD97 series of vehicles is ongoing for domestic procurement by the People's Liberation Army Ground Force and potential export.

Although the ZBD97 series of vehicles currently represents only a minute percentage of the PLAGF's overall armored largess, the series occupies a key position in the service's ongoing pursuit of a modernized frontline armored force structure.

The limited quantities of ZBD97 vehicles in active service are intended to act as the tip of the spear of the PLAGF's mechanized forces, supplementing the service's vast but antiquated fleet of WZ501 vehicles. Although an imperfect source of information, reports and photography released regularly by Chinese state media suggest that the PLAGF is increasingly prioritizing the retrofit of existing ZBD97 stocks to the up-armored ZBD-08 variant, as well as extensive new-build production of the upgraded model.

Although, compared to the base model, the ZBD-08's amphibious capabilities are somewhat reduced, its improved survivability and protection levels make it better suited to fulfill the core operational needs of the PLAGF's armored forces. The ZBD97 design's versatility also makes it a strong foundation upon which the PLA can develop a wide family of specialized variants and upgraded models in the future.

Despite open-source reports that indicate Chinese contractors are already developing successors to the ZBD97, the vehicle's affordability and ease of adaptation will ensure its relevance, and continued production, beyond 2024.

Over the past several years, NORINCO has gradually introduced a streamlined, parallel designation system for Chinese military vehicle products being sold on the international market. The system is intended to bring a greater sense of unity and hierarchy to NORINCO's available export product line, build brand recognition, and spare potential customers the struggle of sorting through China's often labyrinthine domestic designation system.

As such, the base ZBD97 model is referred to on the export market as the VN11, while the enhanced variant is designated the VN12.

NORINCO began actively marketing the VN12 variant in mid-2014, and first publicly displayed the enhanced model at Airshow China in November 2014.

The VN12 features significant improvements in armored protection and survivability levels over the base model, integrating bolted applique armor covering essentially the entirety of the vehicle's hull and turret. The new model integrates a 30mm cannon like that of NORINCO's ZBD-05 amphibious infantry fighting vehicle, as well as two HJ-8 Red Arrow anti-tank guided missiles. NORINCO press materials suggest that the vehicle is outfitted with upgraded fire-control and communications systems.

Currently, neither the VN11 nor VN12 have generated any known export orders.

The oversaturated condition of the international market for armored vehicles and the presence of well-established competitors, such as Russia's Kurganmashzavod and its BMP series, in key regional markets present NORINCO's design with significant challenges.

Nevertheless, the Forecast International Weapons Group anticipates that the VN11 and VN12 will secure a modest quantity of export orders through the forecast period, primarily from China's traditional customers in North Africa, the Middle East and South America.

For customers seeking to modernize their IFV inventories without incurring exorbitant expenditures, the VN11 and VN12's combination of modern capabilities with a comparatively low unit price is liable to prove an attractive solution.

Ultimately, however, the primary force that will sustain serial production of the ZBD97 series through the forecast period will be the expansive domestic requirements of the PLAGF as it continues to pursue its ambitious campaign of force modernization.

Source: Forecast International Weapons Group
Author: T. Dolzall, Military Vehicles Analyst