Contact: Raymond Jaworowski, Senior Aerospace Analyst
Phone: (203) 426-0800
Web site: www.forecastinternational.com
Forecast International, Inc.
22 Commerce Rd. Newtown, CT 06470 USA
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Regional Turboprop Resurgence Continues; Jet Demand
NEWTOWN, Conn. [December 10, 2007] — In its latest study on “The Market for Regional Transport
Aircraft,” Forecast International projects that 3,800 regional aircraft will be
produced from 2007 through 2016, including 2,539 regional jets and 1,261
regional turboprops. The new study estimates the overall value of this
production at $99.7 billion, as measured in constant 2007 U.S. dollars.
While regional jets remain the dominant products in the
market, regional turboprop airliners are continuing to experience a remarkable
resurgence in demand. Accounting for the revival of market interest in
turboprops is a combination of factors, including continuing growth in air
traffic, rising fuel prices, and a need on the part of regional airlines to cut
costs and reduce fares in the face of low-fare carrier competition.
ATR and Bombardier are the two leading manufacturers of
regional turboprops, and have been busily ramping up production rates to meet
the robust demand for their products. According to Forecast International
senior aerospace analyst Raymond Jaworowski, “ATR and Bombardier stayed in the
regional turboprop business while many of their competitors were dropping out,
and they are now reaping the rewards of their perseverance.”
Looking to further take advantage of the robust market
demand, ATR recently launched enhanced -600 versions of its 50-seat ATR 42 and
70-seat ATR 72 turboprops and has begun considering development of a 90-seat model.
Bombardier, meanwhile, has been mulling the possible launch of a 90-seat
version of its 70-seat Q400 turboprop.
As for jet-powered aircraft, regional jet demand has been
shifting ever upward to larger-capacity aircraft. The market for 50-seat regional
jets is but a slim shadow of what it was in the late 1990s, and demand is
currently concentrated on 70-seat and especially 90-seat aircraft. However,
scope clauses in airline pilot contracts remain an artificial constraint on
sales of 90-125 seat regional jets, and an easing of this situation is needed
before the market can reach its full potential.
Bombardier and Embraer currently dominate the regional jet
market. With a product line stretching to 122 seats, Embraer is the
better-positioned of the two to take advantage of the trend toward larger
aircraft. Bombardier’s current regional jet line tops out at 100 seats, though
the firm is contemplating launch of a 110-130 seat aircraft family called the
CSeries. Meanwhile, new regional jet models such as the AVIC I ARJ21, the
Sukhoi Superjet 100, and the Mitsubishi Regional Jet models are in development,
and will challenge the Embraer and Bombardier products for sales.
The Forecast International study projects that, during the
2007-2016 time period, Embraer will produce 1,268 regional jets, a market share
of 33.4 percent. Bombardier is projected to build 1,067 regional aircraft
(jets and turboprops combined), a share of 28.1 percent. ATR is forecast to
build 395 regional turboprops for a 10.4 percent market share. No other
company is predicted to have a unit production share exceeding 10 percent. The
value of Embraer production during the forecast period is $40.7 billion, for a
40.8 percent market share. Bombardier is projected to build $33.1 billion
worth of regional aircraft, for a 33.2 percent share. The value of forecast
ATR production is estimated at $7.0 billion, a seven percent share.
Forecast International, Inc., is a leading provider of
Market Intelligence and Analysis in the areas of aerospace, defense, power
systems and military electronics. Based in Newtown, Conn., USA, Forecast
International specializes in long-range industry forecasts and market
assessments used by strategic planners, marketing professionals, military
organizations, and governments worldwide. To arrange an interview with
Forecast International’s editors, please contact Ray Peterson, Vice President,
Research & Editorial Services (203-426-0800, email@example.com).