NEWTOWN, Conn. -- The Rolls-Royce AE 3007 turbofan engine forecast shows increasing deliveries over the long term, but it is far less positive than the trend line suggests. The primary applications for the engine have long been the large-cabin Embraer Legacy 650 and the Cessna Citation X+ medium business jet, and neither aircraft has sold well in recent years.

Cessna plans to terminate production of the Citation X+ in 2019, and demand for the Legacy 650 - a derivative of one of Embraer's regional jets - has fallen as the business jet market turns toward newer designs.

With demand from business jet makers fading, the outlook for the AE 3007 now depends on the military unmanned aerial vehicle market.

The market for the RQ-4B Global Hawk, powered by a single engine, has grown beyond the U.S. Air Force, with the MQ-4C, a maritime surveillance version, being developed for the U.S. Navy. The export market will provide more orders over time, though this very expensive high-altitude reconnaissance UAV will never be produced in high volumes.

Another application is the U.S. Navy's new MQ-25 Stingray UAV. In September 2018, Rolls-Royce announced that Boeing had selected the AE 3007N, a new variant, to provide the single-engine aircraft with 10,000 pounds of thrust and additional electrical power. The initial contract awarded to Boeing covers development and production of four test aircraft. The Navy could buy up to 156 aircraft in a program of record, but it is more likely to buy from 72-84 during the life of the program.

The outlook for the AE 3007 is now tied to the military demand for UAVs. Because the aircraft uses a single engine rather than two as mounted on business jets, production for the Global Hawk program cannot replace lost demand from the business jet segment. The program could use a new civil application for the engine that will provide a new source of high-volume orders.

Source: Forecast International
Associated URL: forecastinternational.com
Author: Douglas Royce, Aviation Gas Turbines