NEWTOWN, Conn. - The light launch vehicle market is becoming increasingly competitive. The Vega faces competition from other launch vehicles like India's PSLV and Japan's Epsilon. The market is expected to become increasingly crowded going forward as startups like Virgin Orbit, Rocket Lab, Vulcan Space Systems, and Firefly Aerospace all seek to design and build new lightweight launch vehicles.
Even so, the Vega is in a healthy position in the lightweight launch market. The vehicle will benefit from a strong domestic market due to its association with the European Space Agency. ESA is dedicated to using European-built equipment and continues to launch lightweight scientific satellites, ensuring steady demand for the Vega. In fact, in April 2017, the European Commission committed to buying two Vega-C's per year once the launch vehicle becomes operational in 2019.
In addition, engineers are gradually increasing Vega's capabilities. The P120 rocket motor that will equip the Vega-C will boost power over the current version, enabling the Vega to carry heavier payloads or more payloads than competitors like Virgin Orbit's LauncherOne. In addition, the P120 will be shared with the Ariane 6, increasing economies of scale and reducing costs to build each engine.
For these reasons, Forecast International expects three to four Vega launch vehicles to be built per year. Based on comments from company officials, that will enable the program to continue to maintain a profit and sustain the program going forward.
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