NEWTOWN, Conn. - The People's Liberation Army is currently pursuing an ambitious force modernization program.
This long-term effort encompasses the ongoing acquisition of a broad range of both tracked and wheeled armored infantry combat vehicles over the coming decade as the PLA seeks to enhance and solidify the modern combat capabilities of its mechanized forces. However, at time of writing, Chinese procurement policy toward new ICV series remains in a transitional stage.
Although the PLA has undertaken procurement of new breakthrough armored vehicles such as the ZBD-04/04A/ZBD97 and airborne-oriented ZBD-03/ZLC2000 on a considerable scale, the PLA and Chinese MoD do not appear to have settled upon a true successor to the ubiquitous WZ 501 and YW 307/309, one that will prove capable of fully replacing these models in the long term to become the new standard of the Chinese IFV fleet.
The PLAGF's procurement strategy over the past decade in regard to ICVs and IFVs has been defined less by large-scale acquisitions (by Chinese standards) and more by the targeting of key operational requirements.
Although the WZ 501 may be increasingly outdated, the vehicle is still capable of adequately fulfilling the majority of China's relatively limited land-defense requirements in the mechanize sphere. As such, the continued retrofit and modernization of these existing vehicle stocks often takes precedence over the acquisition of more costly new designs.
However, the vast but aging fleet of WZ 501 vehicles is buttressed by the PLAGF's targeted deployment of its more capable and contemporary vehicle series into important, breakthrough-oriented operational roles and through the heavier distribution of these new vehicle series to strategically vital military regions.
PLAGF and Chinese contractors are likely to continue their general practice of developing a seemingly innumerable array of new variants, for both older vehicle series and for those only recently introduced into active service, through the forecast period and beyond.
Toward the end of the forecast period, we anticipate that the PLAGF will begin to seek an increased degree of standardization its procurement policy for IFVs as Chinese military officials come to better understand which of its many new vehicle series are best suited to China's operational needs.
However, the PLA's somewhat piecemeal approach to new armored acquisitions is likely to continue through most of the coming decade as the military continues to confront the daunting task of how best to modernize such a vast mechanized fleet.
Reports that the Type 90 MICV design was slated to become the foundation upon which the PLAGF would standardize its IFV fleet do not appear to have come to fruition. In addition, through the forecast period, an increasingly large share of the PLAGF's ICV fleet is likely to be composed of cost-effective wheeled, rather than tracked, vehicle series.
Highly adaptable wheeled vehicle designs such as the WMZ 551 and the European-inspired ZBL-09 can provide the PLAGF with potent offensive capabilities at a price-point that is highly suitable for large-scale acquisitions.
