NEWTOWN, Conn. -- With the mass production of China State Shipbuilding Corp. Project 052D class destroyers, the Chinese Navy got serious. Taken in conjunction with the construction of Project 055 cruisers and Project 071 amphibious warfare ships, the Chinese Navy commissioned over 100,000 tons of naval shipping in 2018. This represents a remarkable shift in naval power and capability.
Until the Project 052C and 052D arrived on the scene, the Chinese Navy was virtually devoid of air defenses and was thus forced to operate within the protective radius of Chinese land-based air power. This is no longer the case, and the Chinese Navy has much greater operational flexibility as a result. It is inevitable that as capability grows, it will be used - any observation of Chinese naval activity confirms this is happening.
The next step in the expansion of Chinese Navy power projection capability has been the introduction of the Project 055 cruiser. Originally seen as simply an enlarged version of the Project 052D destroyer (hence its inclusion in this report), it has now become apparent that this ship is not just significantly larger and more capable than the Project 052D, but represents a new dimension in fleet capability. For all its modernity, the Project 052D conformed to the existing air warfare doctrine common to the Chinese and Russian navies, whereby every ship looked after itself. The Project 055 cruiser has changed all that.
When the first Project 055 was launched, the idea that it was just an enlarged 052D turned out to be a small part of the story. The Project 055 is indeed significantly larger than the Project 052D, but it also incorporates substantial group and area command capability. This allows a Chinese naval task group to set up a properly integrated air defense system similar to that surrounding an equivalent U.S. Navy task group. Such an integrated system is an order of magnitude more effective compared to the same group of ships fighting individually.
So far, the Chinese fleet has one aircraft carrier in service - the Liaoning - and China is building two Project 001 carriers that will require command ships for their screen. However, the future Chinese aircraft carriers are not the only ships in the Chinese Navy that will require a screen. The Chinese Navy is also building two amphibious warfare groups, centered on large oceangoing LPDs and LPHs. These ships will require the same amount of protection as the carriers get. For example, additional air defense ships will be needed to provide UNREPs (underway replenishments) and other logistic assets. The Chinese Navy is about to find out just how expensive power projection can be.
Future Construction
The forecast reflects the pattern of orders - or, given the structure of Chinese industry, the "instruction to proceed" - for the Project 052 design. Now that substantial numbers of Project 052D ships are entering the fleet, and experience with them is growing, we can expect to see a further improved version of the class. Before that happens, the orders for a further six to eight sister ships that have reportedly been placed will need to be fulfilled. This will complete the screening force for the Liaoning and the amphibious groups, plus provide a number of air defense ships that can be assigned wherever the requirement arises. The assignment of eight to 12 ships to each of the three main fleets seems probable, suggesting that the final construction total could be as high as 26. This projection is now being supported by statements from within China. It is probable that the 052D design will be replaced by a further improved "Project 052E" in the medium term.
If the Project 055 cruisers are indeed the flagships for screens protecting the aircraft carrier and amphibious warfare battlegroups, an initial force of six would seem to be a likely target. Recent Chinese statements in Xinhua, as well as other sources, suggest this would be supplemented by longer-term construction leading to as many as 18 cruisers of this class. While they are included in this report for the current year, the growing appreciation of their fundamentally different role from that of the 052Ds will result in them being split out into a new report next year.
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