NEWTOWN, Conn. - The Dnepr's low price, reliable launch record, and ability to launch multiple payloads make it appealing to customers who need light- and medium-weight launch services. Manufacturing the Dnepr out of refurbished ICBMs saves on costs, and the launch vehicle has successfully placed payloads into orbit 20 out of 21 times.
Despite the strengths of the Dnepr, there are a number of issues that will limit launch rates going forward. The launch vehicle is nearing the end of its lifespan. The Soviet-era SS-18 ICBMs upon which the Dnepr launch vehicles are based on Soviet-era SS-18 ICBMs. As these missiles age, they will no longer be able to launch satellites into orbit. Once the vehicles reach the end of their lifespans, it will be too expensive to upgrade them to continue commercial launches. At one point the missiles were expected to reach the end of their lifespans in 2016. However, Kosmotras indicates it will be able to continue launches after that date.
In addition, the Dnepr is facing intense competition and rising prices. New launch vehicles, such as the Vega in Europe and India's PSLV, will compete for contracts with the Dnepr. Also, the Dnepr, once an extremely cheap launch vehicle, has risen in cost to between $30 million and $35 million per launch, putting its price closer to other rivals.
The biggest factor threatening Dnepr production is the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The launch vehicle is a joint project between contractors in the two countries. With the conflict ongoing, the Ukrainian space industry has suffered. Russia's government will no longer use the Dnepr. In addition, Russia may deny components as well as the Yasny launch site to Kosmotras. Under that condition, Kosmotras would no longer be able to produce the Dnepr.
At this time, continued long-term production and launches of the Dnepr are highly unlikely. The launch vehicle has averaged two launches per year since 2013. One Dnepr already lifted off in 2015, and another is scheduled later in the year. While more launches are planned through 2018, Forecast International believes that increasing costs to upgrade missiles into Dnepr launch vehicles and conflict between Russia and Ukraine will limit launches after 2016.
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