Press Release
Contact: John Edwards, Space Systems Analyst
Phone: (203) 426-0800
Fax: (203) 426-4262
Web site: www.forecastinternational.com
E-mail: john.edwards@forecast1.com
Forecast International, Inc.
22 Commerce Rd. Newtown, CT 06470 USA
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Expendable Launch Vehicle Industry Ready for Comsat
Rebound
NEWTOWN, Conn. [August
1, 2006] — According
to a recently released Forecast International study, “The World Market for Expendable
Launch Vehicles: 2006-2015,” about 682 ELVs of various types will roll
off the production lines during the next 10 years to meet future global
requirements. The value of the ELV market between 2006 and 2015 is expected to
total approximately $46 billion. Forecast International’s analysis of
worldwide satellite programs indicates that the production of commercial,
civil, military, and science satellites through 2015 will total over 800 units.
All of these spacecraft will require the services of ELVs, although not all
will launch individually as some will be part of multiple-spacecraft launches.
“Taken together, European, Russian, Ukrainian, and U.S.
launchers will account for some 78 percent of the total ELV market through 2015,”
said John Edwards, Forecast International’s Space Systems Analyst and author of
the study. The remaining 22 percent will be split fairly evenly among China
Great Wall Industry, Hindustan Aeronautics, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries,
and their respective systems – Long March, PSLV and GSLV, and H-2A – are
earmarked primarily for domestic payloads.
The interconnectivity that exists between the launch vehicle
and satellite industries means that neither market can flourish without the
other, as the launch vehicle industry requires a steady stream of payloads, and
both satellite manufacturers and operators require consistent access to these
vehicles. For this reason, it is becoming more critical for both industries to
analyze the overall business health of the other.
Despite the overcapacity of the commercial satellite market
and the decreasing number of commercial launches being conducted, satellite
operators are having trouble finding rides to space due to the fact that
manufacturers of ELVs have sized their industry to match commercial demand.
Therefore, although fewer commercial missions are being performed than in years
past, there will be continued competition through at least 2006 for the launch
vehicles being produced.
Said Edwards, “At this time, the balance between supply and
demand will become much more stable. In the meantime, commercial customers will
find that it pays to book in advance.” Some have already done so, to the
extent of purchasing a ride to space before the satellite has even been
ordered. “In terms of launch service pricing, it looks as if the downward
trend that began late in the last century has indeed come to an end, as prices
have firmed up and are likely to continue their upward spiral in 2006,” Edwards
remarked.
The depressed commercial communications satellite market has
obviously limited the number of potential launch opportunities available to
providers. However, a rebound is expected and demand will soon exceed capacity.
This should lead to a nice replacement market and help to push total commercial
satellite orders to about 17 in 2006. This level of production should remain
steady for several years and will serve to bolster launch vehicle manufacturers
and launch service providers worldwide.
Forecast International, Inc., is a leading provider of
Market Intelligence and Analysis in the areas of aerospace, defense, power
systems and military electronics. Based in Newtown, Conn., USA, Forecast
International specializes in long-range industry forecasts and market
assessments used by strategic planners, marketing professionals, military
organizations, and governments worldwide. To arrange an interview with
Forecast International’s editors, please contact Ray Peterson (203-426-0800,
ray.peterson@forecast1.com).
