Press Release

Contact: Bill Dane, Senior Aerospace Analyst

Phone: (203) 426-0800

Fax: (203) 426-4262

Web site: www.forecastinternational.com

E-mail: bill.dane@forecast1.com

Forecast International, Inc.

22 Commerce Rd. Newtown, CT  06470 USA

 

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

 

VLJ Poised to Debut

 

NEWTOWN, Conn. [June 19, 2006] — Both the Eclipse 500 and Cessna Mustang are scheduled for certification and service entry within the next several months, and are expected to be followed by the Adam Aircraft A700. When first announced several years ago, this new type of four-eight-passenger Very Light Jet (VLJ) was greeted with a great deal of skepticism, particularly as startup company Eclipse Aviation, which was the first to commit to the new concept, had never built an aircraft.

 

Under the tutelage of Vern Raburn, Eclipse Aviation’s CEO, the Albuquerque-based firm survived an engine switch early in the program’s development, has chalked up more than 2,350 orders and options, and expects to be turning out nearly 900 aircraft in its second full year of production.  Imitation, it is said, is the most sincere form of flattery. Hence, when Cessna, a company synonymous with business jets, threw its hat into the VLJ ring with its Mustang design, many of the naysayers began taking a serious look at this new class of aircraft.

 

While many of the VLJ orders to date have come from the owner/operator segment, several factional ownership outfits and a growing number of startup air taxi/air limousine firms are also purchasing these aircraft.  NASA studies see the VLJs as an integral part of a new Small Aircraft Transportation System (SATS).  The SATS concept envisions air taxi services springing up at many of the 5,000 unused or under-utilized general aviation airports around the United States. A key to their success will be fares that are low enough to enable these new services to compete with coach airline fares. State-of-the-art reservation systems will also play a significant role, as the operators must avoid flying empty or even half-full aircraft on return legs.

 

It remains to be seen how these aircraft will be handled by the insurance companies. They may insist that VLJs in commercial passenger service be flown by two pilots, and training may include the mentoring of a student pilot by a highly experienced pilot. Pilot training will be a major issue as new owners transition to jet power. Eclipse had originally planned to conduct its own in-house training program but subsequently teamed with United Airlines Flight Training Center in Denver, and the latter will handle pilot training chores for the Eclipse 500.

 

Over the past several years there have been perhaps a dozen VLJ designs on the drawing boards, but it now appears likely that only about three or four of these will receive their FAA tickets and enter into service, at least in the near term.  Forecast International believes that among the entrants the Adam A700, Cessna Mustang, Embraer Phenom 100 and Eclipse 500 have the greatest chance of achieving this milestone. 

 

Forecast International feels that while NASA’s SATS concept appears rather ambitious at this early stage, the VLJ revolution nevertheless represents a significant landmark in commercial aviation.  Indeed, the VLJ manufacturers are already claiming orders and options for about 3,000 aircraft from a broad cross-section of the market. Acknowledging that this figure includes speculative “orders,” and factoring in timetable slippage common with such new programs, Forecast International is projecting deliveries of approximately 4,355 VLJs during the 2006-2015 timeframe.

 

Forecast International, Inc., is a leading provider of Market Intelligence and Analysis in the areas of aerospace, defense, power systems and military electronics.  Based in Newtown, Conn., USA, Forecast International specializes in long-range industry forecasts and market assessments used by strategic planners, marketing professionals, military organizations, and governments worldwide.  To arrange an interview with Forecast International’s editors, please contact Ray Peterson (203-426-0800, ray.peterson@forecast1.com).