Press Release

Contact: Bill Dane, Senior Aerospace Analyst

Phone: (203) 426-0800

Fax: (203) 426-4262

Web site: www.forecastinternational.com

E-mail: bill.dane@forecast1.com

Forecast International, Inc.

22 Commerce Rd. Newtown, CT  06470 USA

 

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

 

Eurofighter Leads Growing Fighter/Attack/Jet Trainer Aircraft Market

 

NEWTOWN, Conn. [April 3, 2006] ― The world combat aircraft market is much more competitive than it was a year ago, primarily due to two significant developments.  First, the U.S. Air Force failed to overturn cutbacks suggested for the Lockheed Martin F-22 program in early 2005; the service will now acquire about 180 F-22s.  Second, the Eurofighter consortium scored a major coup at the end of the year when Saudi Arabia signed up for “at least” 24 Typhoon fighters.

 

Lockheed Martin’s F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) program may also take additional hits, but the high volume of anticipated international sales would go a very long way toward offsetting any more cutbacks in U.S. buys.  More than a dozen nations are participating to varying degrees in the F-35’s development stage.

 

According to Forecast International editor Bill Dane, “The F-35 will definitely be the aircraft to beat in the coming years, but it will be critical for Lockheed Martin to resolve the dissatisfaction expressed by several international participants regarding work share and technology transfer issues.” Dane adds that the U.S. company must also keep the program on schedule and keep further cost increases to a minimum to fully exploit the aircraft’s market potential.

Back in Europe, France’s Dassault is still looking for its first Rafale export customer while, as noted above, Eurofighter scored with a major sale to Saudi Arabia.

 

The off-again/on-again Brazilian fighter competition is now moot, as that country dropped plans for a near-term buy in favor of acquiring surplus France Air Force Mirage 2000s.  Dassault’s delta-wing design is, however, expected to win a sizable portion of India’s upcoming purchase of about 200 new combat aircraft.  The Lockheed F-16 and MiG-29 are viewed as frontrunners for the remaining buy.

 

Among the new generation of advanced jet trainers making their debuts in the next several years, Aermacchi’s M-346 has made significant progress in the past year and Greece appears to be a very likely launch customer.  The Russian Yak-130 and MiG-AT types are still seeking their first international customers, while Lockheed and Korea Aerospace are promoting the T-50 as a new lead-in fighter trainer for the U.S. Air Force.

 

China’s Chengdu is co-developing the FC-1 single-seat multirole fighter with the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex.  China has thus far committed to a mere eight aircraft, but is expected to purchase about 100 units, with Pakistan believed to be acquiring about 150.  Chengdu is also working on a more sophisticated J-10 model, and this is the heir-apparent to about 400 older J-7 fighters.  Low-level J-10 production is reported to be under way.

 

Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) has flown four T/A‑50 prototypes and is scheduled to begin deliveries of 94 aircraft to the ROK Air Force in late 2005.  KAI developed the supersonic trainer/strike aircraft with Lockheed Martin, and the team is now considering an F‑50 fighter variant as a replacement for some 2,600 Northrop F-5s still in worldwide service.

 

During the 2006-2015 forecast period, worldwide fighter/attack/jet trainer aircraft production will total a projected 3,865 aircraft, valued at $155.9 billion.  Annual output will be on the rise during the second five-year period as the new re-equipment cycle gathers steam.

 

The Eurofighter consortium is projected to lead the market in terms of sales revenues, and will be trailed by Lockheed Martin, Boeing, the Lockheed/Boeing F-22 team, Russia’s Sukhoi, and relative newcomer Chengdu from China.

 

Forecast International, Inc., is a leading provider of market intelligence and analysis in the areas of aerospace, defense, power systems and military electronics.  Based in Newtown, Conn., USA, Forecast International specializes in long-range industry forecasts and market assessments utilized by strategic planners, marketing professionals, military organizations, and governments worldwide.  To arrange an interview with Forecast International’s editors, please contact Monty Nebinger (203-426-0800, monty.nebinger@forecast1.com).