Press Release

Contact: Bill Dane, Senior Aerospace Analyst

Phone: (203) 426-0800

Fax: (203) 426-4262

Web site: www.forecast1.com

E-mail: bill.dane@forecast1.com

Forecast International, Inc.

22 Commerce Rd. Newtown, CT  06470 USA

 

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

 

Military Transport Market on the Rise, Worth $53 Billion Through 2013

 

NEWTOWN, Conn. [September 9, 2004] ― Forecast International is projecting a growing demand for military transport aircraft through the next 10 years, with actual shipments and revenues higher during the second five-year period than in the first. The world's air forces will take delivery of 922 new transports valued at $53 billion.

 

The two big U.S. manufacturers, Boeing and Lockheed, will face an increasing challenge from Europe's Airbus Military, Alenia, and EADS CASA but, according to Forecast International aviation analyst Bill Dane, "They are nonetheless expected to continue their long-standing dominance of this market segment." However, Dane notes that "Boeing will see its market share fall off with the anticipated closing of its C-17 line in early 2011."

 

The emerging Airbus A400M, EADS CASA C-295, and Alenia C-27J programs are projected to accrue nearly 12 percent of the market in terms of revenues during the 2004-08 period, but should see this grow to more than 40 percent in the 2009-2013 timeframe. The upcoming A400M, sized between the U.S.-built C-17 and C-130 models, will account for most of this market gain. To date, the seven A400M partner nations have ordered 180 aircraft, and the consortium is aggressively seeking sales on the international market.

 

The Forecast International market outlook assumes the U.S. Air Force will re-engine all 50 of its existing C-5Bs with GE CF6 turbofans, and will procure an additional 42 C-17s to preclude future airlift shortfalls.  The service's earlier model C-5As would then follow the older C-141s into retirement.

 

The outlook for Antonov's An-70 continues to be dim. A very small number of these transports are earmarked for Hungary and the Czech Republic, primarily as part of a debt repayment plan, but Russian support for the originally planned joint purchase with the Ukraine has softened considerably. The Russians have sharply criticized the An-70's performance, and this may well be a prelude to dropping the type from consideration in favor of the all-Russian Tupolev Tu-330.

 

The medium-lift segment will bear close watching in the coming years as competition between Alenia's new C-27J and the CN-235M and C-295 from EADS CASA heats up.  Sales of these have been slow thus far, but with at least a half -dozen nations currently firming up medium transport orders, we expect demand to harden by late decade. The U.S. Coast Guard has ordered two CN-235Ms for its Deepwater modernization program and, if funding permits, may ultimately seek up to 35 units.  Deliveries of the light military transports, already at low ebb, will continue to fall off over the next 10 years as EADS CASA, Poland's PZL, and Socata of France compete in a shrinking market.

 

Although Airbus Military will increase its market share, primarily at the expense of Boeing, the latter and Lockheed Martin will continue to dominate this segment. The contest could intensify in the outyears, should Airbus succeed in lining up sales outside the multinational consortium, but the A400M will face stiff competition from both the new C-130J and refurbished/upgraded earlier model C-130s.

 

Forecast International, Inc. is a leading provider of Market Intelligence and Analysis in the areas of aerospace, defense, power systems and military electronics.  Based in Newtown, CT, USA, Forecast International specializes in long-range industry forecasts and market assessments, including regular 10-year forecasts. Its products are utilized by strategic planners, marketing professionals, military organizations, and governments worldwide.  To arrange an interview with Forecast International's analysts, please contact Monty Nebinger (203-426-0800, monty.nebinger@forecast1.com)