Press Release

Contact: Bill Dane, Senior Aerospace Analyst

Phone: (203) 426-0800

Fax: (203) 426-4262

Web site: www.forecastinternational.com

E-mail: bill.dane@forecast1.com

Forecast International, Inc.

22 Commerce Rd. Newtown, CT  06470 USA

 

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

 

Military Transport Market – Boeing to Exit, Airbus In

 

NEWTOWN, Conn. [October 21, 2005] ― Global demand for new military transports is projected at 929 aircraft worth nearly $54 billion during the next ten years, according to a new Forecast International study, The World Market for Military Transport Aircraft – 2005-2014.

 

Although the Boeing C-17 and Lockheed Martin C-130J will maintain their hold on the market through this decade, some major changes are in the offing.

 

Boeing will deliver the last of 180 C-17 heavy-lifters by mid-2008 and, although it appears likely that an additional 40 units will be procured, the line is expected to close by the end of 2010. Boeing hopes to instead build KC-767 tankers for the USAF by decade's end.

 

"Boeing's market exit will leave Lockheed Martin to battle for sales against the larger new A400M from Airbus Military, and the smaller transport models offered by EADS CASA and Italy's Alenia," according to Forecast International aviation analyst Bill Dane. "Lockheed Martin had a brief scare in early 2005 when the Pentagon sought to cut short the manufacturer’s multiyear C-130J contract in a budget-trimming measure, but that plan was shot down."  The line continues to roll, providing the manufacturer time to drum up more export sales.

 

Seven European nations are committed to buying 180 of the four-engined A400Ms, and both Chile and South Africa also plan to acquire the aircraft. Initial deliveries are scheduled for 2009.

 

In addition, the U.S. Army’s Future Cargo Aircraft (FCA) competition is shaping up as an all-European show, with the Alenia C-27J pitted against the EADS CASA CN-235 and/or C-295. The Army wants about 30 new transports to replace 44 C-23 Sherpas but is also expected to standardize on the FCA finalist to replace some of its other, aging medium transports. Alenia has been claiming to hold the inside track in the FCA competition, citing its candidate’s enviable short field capabilities. EADS CASA, on the other hand, contends that the C-27J is too large for the Army’s requirements. The Army is expected to select a finalist design around mid-2006. With possible USAF procurements, the total production run could total about 120 aircraft.

 

Forecast International, Inc. is a leading provider of Market Intelligence and Analysis in the areas of aerospace, defense, power systems, and military electronics.  Based in Newtown, CT, USA, Forecast International specializes in long-range industry forecasts and market assessment - utilized by strategic planners, marketing professionals, military organizations, and governments - worldwide.  To arrange an interview with Forecast International’s analysts, please contact Monty Nebinger (203-426-0800), monty.nebinger@forecast1.com.