Press Release
Contact: John S. Edwards, Space Systems Analyst
Phone: (203) 426-0800
Fax: (203) 426-4262
Web site: www.forecast1.com
E-mail: john.edwards@forecast1.com
Forecast International, Inc.
22 Commerce Rd. Newtown, CT 06470 USA
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
U.S.Satellite
Industry Dominates Despite Overcapacity
NEWTOWN, Conn. [August 15, 2005] –
The market for commercial communications satellites is expected to be worth
$25.4 billion over the next 10 years, according to Forecast International’s
recently completed analysis "Commercial Communications Satellites:
2005-2014." Also anticipated within the next few years, is the long
awaited rebound in the commercial communications market. Fueling this recovery
will not only be the growing market for the application of key technologies and
services to the commercial consumer but also government reliance on commercial
capacity.
Forecast International predicts
that 224 commercial communications satellites destined for geostationary or
medium Earth orbit will be constructed over the next 10 years, at an estimated
total value of about $25.4 billion. The low-Earth-orbiting (LEO) market,
comprised of satellites primarily for providing mobile communications, will see
production of just 29 spacecraft, worth only about $114 million. However, LEO
production may shrink even more, depending on whether programs such as Orbcomm
proceed with their production plans as expected.
"Manufacturers of commercial
communications satellites have seen better years than 2004," said John
Edwards, the report's author. Of 12 new commercial communications satellite
ordered last year, eight were non-competitive sales, that is, they were either
almost guaranteed to go to a certain manufacturer due to issues such as export
restrictions or due to orders that were placed as part of earlier transactions.
While sales did not tank as in
2002, with just three satcoms sold, 2004's order book was a substantial drop
from the previous year's total of 17 orders.
"The drop in orders from
2003 to 2004 raises eyebrows, especially after the less-than-spectacular start
of the new millennium; however, the demise of the U.S. satellite industry has
been greatly exaggerated and the order numbers from last year tell the
tale," said Edwards. "Nine of the 12 commercial communications
satellites ordered, or 75 percent, went to U.S.-based manufacturers."
"The commercial satellite
industry is not as strong as it could be, but the problems are industry-wide
and are by no means exclusive to the United States," Edwards said. Combined
commercial GEO satellites ordered in 2002–2004 equaled 32, which is far less
than the 37 satellites ordered in 2000 alone. A lack of consolidation within
the industry, in either the U.S. or Europe, has created overcapacity, which in
turn has created downward pressure on prices.
Providing much-needed bandwidth
to governments has sustained satellite operators and manufacturers over the
past few years. However, looking to the future, these industries are also
developing innovative products and services in an effort to attract new
customers. For example, to boost sales of commercial satellites, manufacturers
have applied new technologies to their platforms, increasing performance. However,
emerging technologies in the satellite industry are a blessing and a curse.
While they have increased the power and service life of satellite platforms,
ironically, they have tempered production of new spacecraft.
Forecast International, Inc. is a leading provider of Market
Intelligence and Analysis in the areas of aerospace, defense, power systems,
and military electronics. Based in Newtown, CT, USA, Forecast
International specializes in long-range industry forecasts and market
assessment – utilized by strategic planners, marketing professionals, military
organizations, and governments – worldwide. To arrange an interview with
Forecast International’s analysts, please contact Monty Nebinger
(203-426-0800), monty.nebinger@forecast1.com.
