Press Release

Contact:  Carl Opdyke, Power Systems Analyst

Phone: (203) 426-0800

Fax: (203) 426-4262

Web site: www.forecast1.com

E-mail: carl.opdyke@forecast1.com

Forecast International, Inc.

22 Commerce Rd. Newtown, CT  06470 USA

 

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Increasing Military Mobility, Performance Requirements Driving Turboshaft Production Growth

Newtown, Conn. ― February 26, 2003 – The military turboshaft engine market continues to grow on an ever clearer need for increased mobility, while the civil market remains fairly flat.  In the recently released report, "The Market for Aviation Turboshaft Engines, 2003 - 2012," Forecast International expects a steadily rising market for 11,042 military turboshafts, while civil engine production varies over the period, with only 8,955 engines slated for production.

 

"Lessons learned in desert and mountain operations have pointed to a need for higher performance from helicopters," said Forecast International analyst Carl Opdyke.  "Additionally, rapid movement of troops and equipment in these harsh environments has proven important.  This is driving US military turboshaft production growth, including hundreds of engine upgrade kits and retrofit engines with the purpose of expanding the operating/performance envelop of existing helicopters." 

 

Most notable are current or planned engine upgrades for UH-1, UH-60 and CH-47 helicopters.  In Europe, military turboshaft production has already started to rise in conjunction with new attack, transport and ASW/SAR helicopter programs – a trend that is expected to continue.

 

Forecast International is forecasting production of 11,042 turboshafts and engine upgrade (Mod) kits for military applications through 2012, up slightly from the 10,882 units forecast through 2011 last year.  Turbomeca's Ardiden engine has entered our forecast for HAL of India's ALH, and production of Honeywell's T53 and associated Mod kits for Bell's Huey II re-engining is also now represented.  Major military engine programs are GE's T700/CT7, Rolls-Royce Turbomeca's RTM322, Rolls-Royce's T406, MTU/Turbomeca/Rolls-Royce's MTR390 and LHTEC's T800.

 

Most interesting in the military market are developing US Army requirements for both a 3,000 shp engine (the Common Engine Program, or CEP) and one of anywhere from 5,000 shp to 10,000 shp.  The 3,000 shp engine is for Sikorsky UH-60 Black Hawks and, later, probably Boeing Apache attack helicopter re-engining, while the 5,000-10,000 shp engines could power an Advanced Maneuver Transport (AMT, a.k.a. Future Transport Rotorcraft (FTR)).  Technologies now being demonstrated in the Joint Technology Advanced Gas Generator (JTAGG) program, as well as some from the developing Versatile, Affordable Advanced Technology Engine (VAATE) programs, will likely be incorporated by US enginemakers into any new high-power turboshafts if a vertical takeoff and landing type of aircraft is ultimately required for the AMT/FTR.

 

The civil engine market has seen a real decline over the past 12 months.  This will be showing up in declining engine production through 2005 as economic problems linger, particularly in the US. 

 

Turbomeca is projected to hold the largest portion of the civil turboshaft market, producing 3,429 engines.  The high "value-for-cost" Eurocopter EC120 is projected to be Turbomeca's best application, with 964 Arrius 2F engines to be built through 2012.  The light single-engined helicopter is very versatile and cost-effective, and therefore sales of it are most resistance to poor economic conditions.

 

Turbomeca and Pratt & Whitney Canada are the chief players in the civil engine market.  Both are fighting for more market by developing more powerful variants of existing engines.  Pratt Canada's PW200 is expected to gain market share through the forecast period as it gets more powerful variants out onto the market.  Its PT6B and PT6C engines are also aboard a handful of excellent applications at a higher power level (1,000-1,800 shp) in which Turbomeca does not yet compete.  However, Turbomeca has many more applications overall, a situation which is not expected to change.

 

Countries which are not traditional producers of turboshafts, notably India and Japan, are getting more ambitious, Opdyke noted.  Both are steadily developing indigenous turbine engine production capabilities to serve their own sizable markets.   Russia is working hard to re-invigorate its turboshaft industry, but is also adopting a few foreign engines for the time being to expand helicopter production at home and abroad. 

 

It is worth noting that while Pratt & Whitney Canada was first into the Russian market, followed by Rolls-Royce, Turbomeca is making gains here of late (PW200 for the Kamov Ka-226 – originally a Rolls-Royce Model 250 application).  Turbomeca is also working more closely with India's HAL, planning to license produce the new Ardiden for the ALH application. 

 

The largest power band for civil engine production is expected to remain the "Up to 750 shp" segment, with gains being made in the "751 to 1,200 shp" band.  On the military side, the "1,201 to 2,500 shp" band is the biggest market at present, but strong growth in the "2,500 and Higher" segment is being driven by growing US military lift requirements.

 

Forecast International/DMS, Inc., is a leading provider of Market Intelligence and Analyses in the areas of aerospace, defense, power systems and military electronics.  Based in Newtown, CT, USA, Forecast International specializes in long-range industry forecasts and innovative marketing presentations, including regular 10-year forecasts.  To arrange an interview with Forecast International's analysts, please contact Monty Nebinger (203-426-0800, monty.nebinger@forecast1.com).