Press Release

Contact: Rich Henderson

Phone: (203) 426-0800

Fax: (203) 426-4262

Web site: www.forecast1.com

E-mail: rich.henderson@forecast1.com

Forecast International, Inc.

22 Commerce Rd. Newtown, CT  06470 USA

 

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Forecast International Projects Stable Turboprop Engine Market

 

NEWTOWN, Conn., [October 7, 2003] — Forecast International has issued its annual analysis of the market for aviation turboprop engines, which projects deliveries of 9,527 turboprop engines worth a total of more than $5.6 billion over the next 10 years.

Turboprop engine production is expected to increase from 821 units this year to nearly 1,000 units per year in 2005, and then to remain well above the 900-unit mark every year through 2012.  While unit deliveries will hold fairly steady after 2005, the total annual value of turboprop engines will actually increase substantially, from $467.9 million this year to a high of $622.7 million in 2011.  This increase will result primarily from higher demand for larger, more powerful engines during the latter part of the forecast period, and many of those will be delivered to military customers.

According to the Forecast International report, production is expected to trend slightly higher in the near term and again in the later forecast years; the early rise will be driven by civil turboprop orders, and the latter uptrend will result from an increase in military engine demand.  A modest decrease will follow around 2012.  Military production itself is expected to rise from about 274 in 2003 to a peak of about 426 engines in 2011.  Civil production of turboprop engines is expected to increase by up to 10 percent per year in the near term, reaching a high of 635 units in 2008.  The swell in anticipated civil deliveries is largely attributable to orders for increasingly popular single-engine turboprop aircraft.

"Although turbofan-powered aircraft have beaten back turboprop designs in the commuter arena, single-engine turboprops are now poised for substantial growth in business travel and other commercial applications," said Rich Henderson, an aerospace analyst at Forecast International.  "Because turboprop commuters are unlikely to regain ground lost to the new generation of commuter jets, single-engine aircraft will provide a critical source of replacement revenue for turboprop engine builders." 

Commercial flights aboard such planes have been commonplace in the United States, Canada and Australia for several years, and Europe is expected to grant the same approval in the near future, opening a potentially lucrative market for airframe and engine producers.

The advent of several single-engine turboprop aircraft designed for business/corporate applications has proven to be a boon to market leader Pratt & Whitney Canada, maker of the PT6A.  Notably, this market niche includes such European models as the Pilatus PC-12, the EADS Socata TBM 700 and the Ibis Aerospace Ae270HP Spirit.  Several other single-engine turboprop designs are in the works, and are being developed primarily by European airframers.  Most would use the Pratt & Whitney Canada PT6A.  Based almost entirely on PT6A sales, Pratt Canada's value share of the turboprop market will be an estimated $3.23 billion in the 2003-2012 period, with 6,921 engines built.  P&WC will hold 57.4 percent of the turboprop market by value and 72.6 percent by units shipped.

 

The big story in military turboprops could be the Europrop International (EPI) TP400-D6, selected to power the Airbus Industrie A400M cargo plane.  EPI is developing an engine for initial deliveries in 2008.  During the subsequent five years, nearly 350 TP400-D6s will be installed on the four-engine aircraft.  This engine will be the largest of its kind in the Western world, delivering more than 11,000 shp (8,202 kW) of power.  

 

Forecast International Inc., is a leading provider of Market Intelligence and Analyses in the areas of aerospace, defense, power systems and military electronics.  Based in Newtown, CT, USA, Forecast International specializes in long-range industry forecasts and innovative marketing presentations, including regular 10-year forecasts.  To arrange an interview with Forecast International's analysts, please contact Monty Nebinger (203-426-0800, monty.nebinger@forecast1.com).