Press Release

Contact: Kernan Chaisson, Senior Electronics Analyst

Phone: (301) 309-1742

Fax: (203) 426-4262

Web site: www.forecast1.com

E-mail: Kernan.Chaisson@forecast1.com

Forecast International, Inc.

22 Commerce Rd. Newtown, CT  06470 USA

 

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

World Radar Market to Top $18 Billion over Next Ten Years

 

NEWTOWN, Conn., [October 29, 2003] — In its annual update to "The Market for Radar Systems" report, Forecast International predicts that based on programs now in existence, the worldwide radar systems market for the next 10 years should be worth $18.366 million overall.  The market is dominated by radar manufacturing giants:  Raytheon, Northrop Grumman and Thales, with BAE Systems and Ericsson filling out the group.  The top five companies should capture roughly $11.260 billion, or 61.31 percent of the total 10-year market.

The industry continues to exhibit a very concentrated, two-tier character.  The top five companies have established such a commanding position that major changes in the overall shape of the industry are not likely, while teaming arrangements on various programs can be expected.

Thales and Raytheon, for example, have agreed to a multi-national partnership, an air defense company known as Thales-Raytheon Systems.  This transoceanic teaming will bolster the standing of the parent companies in the market. 

Today's radars rely on advanced signal processing to generate more precise and comprehensive target data.  Reliability improvements have been significant, and like aircraft, radars are becoming more stealthy.  Engineers are seeking better methods of reducing a radar's emission signature and thus its vulnerability to countermeasures. 

Electronic counter-countermeasures remain paramount for fire control radars.  Advances in electronically scanned antennas and phased arrays make them the apertures of choice for the next-generation fighter and attack aircraft.  A fourth-generation active array is under development for the Joint Strike Fighter, and work on a fifth generation array is under way.

With unmanned air vehicles (UAVs) becoming more prevalent for battlefield surveillance, adding synthetic aperture radars (SAR) to the electro-optical sensor suites they carry is proving worthwhile.  The Global Hawk will carry a lightweight, 1-meter-resolution SAR derived from radars used on the U-2 reconnaissance plane, the B-2 bomber, and JSTARS.  The Multi-Platform Radar Technology Insertion Program is planned for NATO as well as the Global Hawk and future Air Force E-10A surveillance aircraft.  Predator is already equipped with a small UAV-specific radar, as are European UAVs.

In the naval arena, defense against sea-skimming missiles will have to be based on missile systems, boosting the market for target acquisition and fire control radars.  Missiles with speeds in the Mach 2.5 to Mach 3.5 range are virtually non-interceptable by gun-based close-in weapon systems; over-the-horizon detection is required.  The U.S. Navy Cooperative Engagement Capability that links a fleet's ship and aircraft sensors to provide OTH capability has been tested at sea and is being fielded with the Fleet.

Future battlefield radars will need to be able to detect and track stealthy targets using advanced electronic countermeasures, and discriminate between different aircraft in a mixed raid.  They will also need to be integrated with other sensors for air defense cueing.

Combat in Iraq validated lessons learned in Afghanistan and is creating a template for the force of the future.  Better aircraft command and control, something that relies heavily on radar, is needed.  The value of JSTARS emphasized the wisdom of continuing into a next-generation, airborne command platform, the E-10A

Radars may not play as major a role in counterterrorism applications.  Small Special Operations units cannot carry much equipment and in support of the key operational force radars may be limited to perimeter control.  However interest exists in ground-penetrating equipment for seeking out hostile forces hiding in caves.