Press Release

 

Contact: Rich Henderson, Aerospace Analyst

Phone: (203) 426-0800

Fax: (203) 270-8919

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E-mail: rich.henderson@forecast1.com

Forecast International, Inc.

22 Commerce Rd. Newtown, CT  06470 USA

 

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

 

APU Demand To Rise As Business Jet, Commuter Sales Accelerate

NEWTOWN, Conn. (November 12, 2003) - Increasing sales of business jets (particularly a new crop of personal-size bizjets intended largely for owner-operators) will combine with growing demand for larger commuter aircraft to spur sales of airborne auxiliary power units (APUs) during the next 10 years, according to Forecast International's market analysis, "The Market for Small Propulsion and APU/GPU Gas Turbines – 2003-2012."  More moderate growth in other sectors of the airline industry will support APU production to a lesser extent, as will continuing military aircraft programs.  In the field of small gas turbine propulsion, military requirements will lead to a gradual but substantial increase in engine production as significant numbers of unmanned air vehicles (UAVs) enter service in a variety of roles.

 

Consistent deliveries of airliners such as the Boeing 737 series and the Airbus A318/A319/A320/A321 series will ensure demand for APUs during the 10-year timeframe, and a few models (such as the Boeing 777) are expected to enjoy markedly increased sales within the next few years.  The leading beneficiaries of this trend are Honeywell Aerospace and United Technologies Corporation's APU producers – Hamilton Sundstrand, APIC and Pratt & Whitney Canada.  Honeywell continues to hold the largest share of the projected APU/small engine market (48.5 percent, or 69.7 percent if propulsion engines are excluded).  That impressive market share could increase if the company's recently introduced RE50 APU finds buyers among the owners of personal/business jets and other small aircraft.  More important, perhaps, is the RE50's leading-edge technology, which could provide the basis for an entirely new family of Honeywell APUs.

 

"The APU market is at a crucial juncture, as increased demands for onboard power inspire design innovations among the market leaders," said Rich Henderson, aerospace analyst and co-author of the analysis.  "The next generation of APUs, exemplified by Honeywell's RE50, will very likely set new standards in terms of output, economy of operation and in-service durability."

 

Small propulsion engines are undergoing a more evolutionary refinement process, according to the analysis.  Increasingly compact turbojet powerplants, such as Hamilton Sundstrand's TJ-30, will be found aboard a diverse fleet of UAVs as military planners continue to exploit the advantages of unmanned flight.  In the field of missile development, Microturbo's TRI 60 turbojet, installed on the latest version of the Exocet anti-ship missile, is expected to demonstrate the gas turbine engine's superior versatility when compared to the customary solid rocket motor.  Though this conversion does not necessarily signal an immediate trend away from solid-fuel propulsion, it could lead to similar designs later in the forecast period, particularly if the newest Exocet is used successfully in combat.

 

Forecast International's Gas Turbine Forecast projects that, in the 2003-2012 period, a total of 46,139 Small Engines/APUs, will be built, including 20,703 small engines and 25,436 APUs.  Those machines will have a total value of U.S. $7.02 billion in 2003 dollars.  Deliveries of APUs and GPUs (ground power units) will total about 2,312 this year, and will increase gradually to about 2,647 in 2006.  Thereafter, delivery levels will hover around the 2,600 mark, decreasingly slightly toward the end of the 10-year forecast period.  Sales of small propulsion engines will reach about 1,591 in 2003, increasing more gradually than APU/GPU totals and reaching a peak of 2,472 in 2010.  Revenues derived from sales of the more durable and complex APUs/GPUs will be more than double those from small propulsion engines, averaging about a half-billion dollars annually.  Small propulsion engines will generate about U.S. $200 million each year in the near term, though that number will begin to increase toward the end of the forecast timeframe, climbing to $250 million by the year 2012.

 

Gas Turbine Forecast service provides machine production totals on an annual basis, looking forward 10 years.  Totals are provided for gas turbine machines by power class, and totals by manufacturer.   Coverage is provided for nearly all current and military production and in-development gas turbine engine and machine programs worldwide.  These include: aviation, missile/drone, small engines/auxiliary power units, industrial (electrical generation and mechanical load drives), and surface transportation (ships and vehicular) power.

 

Forecast International, Inc. is a leading provider of Market Intelligence and Analyses in the areas of aerospace, defense, power systems and military electronics.  Based in Newtown, CT, USA, Forecast International specializes in long-range industry forecasts and innovative marketing presentations, including regular 10-year forecasts.  To arrange an interview with one of Forecast International's analysts, please contact Monty Nebinger (203-426-0800, monty.nebinger@forecast1.com).