Press Release
Contact: Bill Dane, Senior Aerospace Analyst
Phone: (203) 426-0800
Fax: (203) 426-4262
Web site: www.forecast1.com
E-mail: bill.dane@forecast1.com
Forecast International, Inc.
22 Commerce Rd. Newtown, CT 06470 USA
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Civil Helicopter Market on Rebound, 10-Year Sales of $19 Billion Expected
NEWTOWN, Conn. [December 17, 2003] — Civil helicopter
deliveries fell again in 2002, but have rebounded in 2003 and are expected to
register modest gains until peaking at mid-decade. As order backlogs for many
of the new models are worked off, subsequent deliveries are projected to fall
off gradually to near current levels by 2012.
For the 2003-2012 period reviewed in its World Commercial
Rotorcraft Market analysis, Forecast International is projecting shipments of
nearly 9,500 commercial rotary-wing aircraft (including 3,600 piston-powered
models), valued at just under $19 billion. In terms of sales revenues,
Eurocopter continues its strong market dominance, a trend expected to continue
into the early years of the next decade. In terms of actual aircraft
deliveries, however, Robinson Helicopter will lead all others with its lower
cost piston-powered R22 and R44 models.
Bell Helicopter has yet to announce a new strategic business
plan. Forecast International analyst Bill Dane notes that "there have been
intermittent reports of further upgrades of its current models, but plans to
unveil a new design to replace the popular 206 JetRanger/LongRanger series have
apparently been shelved." The company is also concerned over the sluggish
sales performance of its 427 twin, currently certificated for VFR-only
operations, and is working on an enhanced variant with its Korean partner
Samsung.
Although technical problems with
the Bell Boeing V-22 military tiltrotor may have cast a shadow over the Bell/
Agusta BA609 civil tiltrotor, that program is moving ahead. The team
originally indicated it would freeze the project after a prototype first
flight, but is now moving on with plans to obtain certification in 2007. The
Europeans have slowed their own tiltrotor research efforts and now are not
expected to get a demonstrator into the air until about 2008.
MD Helicopter appears to have resolved problems with delayed
shipments from its suppliers and is projected to double the number of its 2003
deliveries by 2006.
Orders from law enforcement
agencies and police departments have risen somewhat following the events of September 11, 2001, and this trend could gain momentum as the U.S. Border Patrol, the new
Homeland Security Office, and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)
define their equipment requirements in the years ahead.
The offshore sector offers
promise in the post-2005 timeframe, according to the report. Exploration is
expected to pick up due to concerns over accessibility of and dependence on
overseas oil supplies, and a good part of this activity will be carried out
further offshore. Some collaborative deep-water exploration is already
scheduled for the Gulf of Mexico, very possibly requiring new and larger
aircraft such as Eurocopter's EC 225 and Sikorsky's S-92. The deep-water
exploration will require longer range helicopters and this will prompt some
operators to begin re-equipping. Dane pointed out that in February 2003, for
example, Offshore Logistics purchased 15 new Sikorsky S-76C+ machines, and
optioned another 24.
The EMS sector continues to grow, particularly in the U.S.
and Europe. Many EMS operators initiated operations with the Eurocopter
BK.117 and will soon begin replacing some of these with newer equipment. New
helicopters are also required as services spread to the more rural areas.
International teaming and collaboration is clearly on the
rise, and many of the Western manufacturers are establishing or expanding joint
ventures with China's industry. Enstrom and Schweizer, the latter through the
new Shanghai Sikorsky organization, plan to set up licensed lines in China,
while Eurocopter is already working with both China and Singapore on the EC
120. MD Helicopters has also concluded a joint venture agreement with Hongdu
of China, and plans to establish a licensed line to produce its MD500/600
series in that country.
Forecast International is a leading provider of Market
Intelligence and Analyses in the areas of aerospace, defense, power systems and
military electronics. Based in Newtown, CT, USA, Forecast International
specializes in long-range industry forecasts and innovative marketing
presentations, including regular 10-year forecasts. To arrange an interview with
Forecast International's analysts, please contact Monty Nebinger (203-426-0800,
monty.nebinger@forecast1.com).
