Contact: Larry Dickerson, Missile Systems Analyst
Phone: (203) 426-0800
Fax: (203) 426-4262
Web site: www.forecast1.com
Forecast International, Inc.
22 Commerce Rd. Newtown, CT 06470 USA
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Air-to-Air Missile Market to Generate $12 Billion in
Sales Through 2013
NEWTOWN, Conn. [January 30, 2004] — Although Operation Iraqi
Freedom saw no major aerial engagements between the involved combatants, this
will not hinder sales of air-to-air missiles in the future. Sales of
air-to-air missiles (AAMs) over the next 10 years will total $12.2 billion,
according to Forecast International's "The Market for Air-to-Air Missiles."
Some 49,379 missiles will be produced, the lion's share by American and
"The value of annual production will steadily increase over
the next 10 years, reaching $1.5 billion by 2013," said Forecast International
missile analyst Larry Dickerson. "A large part of this market – nearly 50
percent – will be controlled by U.S. and Western European companies," he said.
"Raytheon will have the largest single share of this market
at 28 percent, but this is somewhat misleading," said Dickerson. "Raytheon's
hold on the top position in this market is actually much stronger once you
remove certain non-competitive countries from the calculations," he said. "An
example of a ‘non-competitive' country is the People's Republic of China, which
produces thousands of missiles each year but would be lucky to export a few hundred,"
"MBDA is the dominant player from Europe, but has only half
the market share of Raytheon," said Dickerson. "Still, Raytheon's lead has not
stopped BGT of Germany from developing the IRIS-T, which will compete against
the AIM-9X," he said. "No company stays on top of a market forever, and MBDA
and BGT plan to take market share from Raytheon," Dickerson added.
Raytheon produces the AIM-120 AMRAAM and AIM-9X Sidewinder
air-to-air missiles. These systems routinely compete against missiles from
Europe such as MBDA's MICA and ASRAAM. "MBDA is developing the Meteor
beyond-visual-range air-to-air missile in the hope of breaking Raytheon's hold
on the medium-range AAM market segment," Dickerson said.
"A problem for Europe is that the United States is expected
to sell a far greater number of combat fighters than Europe in the future,"
Dickerson said. There is a direct relationship between fighter aircraft sales
and those of air-to-air missiles. "If Europe cannot offer its missiles on
American fighters, it could relegate its AAM companies to second place in this
market for the next 10 years or more," he concluded.
Forecast International, Inc., is a leading provider of
Market Intelligence and Analyses in the areas of aerospace, defense, power
systems and military electronics. Based in Newtown, CT, USA, Forecast
International specializes in long-range industry forecasts and innovative
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