Press Release

Contact:  Larry Dickerson, Missile Systems Analyst

Phone: (203) 426-0800

Fax: (203) 426-4262

Web site: www.forecast1.com

E-mail: larry.dickerson@forecast1.com

Forecast International, Inc.

22 Commerce Rd. Newtown, CT  06470 USA

 

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

 

Air-to-Air Missile Market to Generate $12 Billion in Sales Through 2013

 

NEWTOWN, Conn. [January 30, 2004] — Although Operation Iraqi Freedom saw no major aerial engagements between the involved combatants, this will not hinder sales of air-to-air missiles in the future.  Sales of air-to-air missiles (AAMs) over the next 10 years will total $12.2 billion, according to Forecast International's "The Market for Air-to-Air Missiles."  Some 49,379 missiles will be produced, the lion's share by American and European firms. 

 

"The value of annual production will steadily increase over the next 10 years, reaching $1.5 billion by 2013," said Forecast International missile analyst Larry Dickerson.  "A large part of this market – nearly 50 percent – will be controlled by U.S. and Western European companies," he said.

 

"Raytheon will have the largest single share of this market at 28 percent, but this is somewhat misleading," said Dickerson.  "Raytheon's hold on the top position in this market is actually much stronger once you remove certain non-competitive countries from the calculations," he said.  "An example of a ‘non-competitive' country is the People's Republic of China, which produces thousands of missiles each year but would be lucky to export a few hundred," Dickerson remarked.

 

"MBDA is the dominant player from Europe, but has only half the market share of Raytheon," said Dickerson.  "Still, Raytheon's lead has not stopped BGT of Germany from developing the IRIS-T, which will compete against the AIM-9X," he said.  "No company stays on top of a market forever, and MBDA and BGT plan to take market share from Raytheon," Dickerson added.

 

Raytheon produces the AIM-120 AMRAAM and AIM-9X Sidewinder air-to-air missiles.  These systems routinely compete against missiles from Europe such as MBDA's MICA and ASRAAM.  "MBDA is developing the Meteor beyond-visual-range air-to-air missile in the hope of breaking Raytheon's hold on the medium-range AAM market segment," Dickerson said.

 

"A problem for Europe is that the United States is expected to sell a far greater number of combat fighters than Europe in the future," Dickerson said.  There is a direct relationship between fighter aircraft sales and those of air-to-air missiles.  "If Europe cannot offer its missiles on American fighters, it could relegate its AAM companies to second place in this market for the next 10 years or more," he concluded.

 

Forecast International, Inc., is a leading provider of Market Intelligence and Analyses in the areas of aerospace, defense, power systems and military electronics.  Based in Newtown, CT, USA, Forecast International specializes in long-range industry forecasts and innovative marketing presentations, including regular 10-year forecasts.  To arrange an interview with Forecast International's analysts, please contact Monty Nebinger (203-426-0800, monty.nebinger@forecast1.com).