Press Release
Contact: Stuart Slade, Senior Naval Analyst
Phone: (203) 426-0800
Fax: (203) 426-4262
Web site: www.forecast1.com
E-mail: stu.slade@forecast1.com
Forecast International, Inc.
22 Commerce Rd. Newtown, CT
06470 USA
FOR IMMEDIATE
RELEASE
New Submarine Technologies Driving Undersea Warfare
Market
NEWTOWN, Conn. [March 29, 2004] —
The increasing sophistication of the submarines now being offered on the
international market, with their advanced weapons and sensor technologies, is
the primary driving force behind a 13.1 percent increase in the value of the
undersea warfare market. For the 2004-2013 period, Forecast International is
projecting that this market will have a total value of $17.381 billion. A
substantial "black" component to undersea warfare exists that, for obvious
reasons, is not reflected in the company's market analysis.
A look at the sampling's year-to-year potential production
values indicates a virtual steady-state in the medium term, with the market
hovering between $1.7 billion and $1.9 billion until 2010. The last three
years of the study period, 2011-2013, show the start of a decline to a new
level of between $1.5 and $1.6 billion.
A decline in the outyears of the forecast period normally
occurs as existing programs are completed while new projects wait in the wings
to be initiated. However, the degree of consistency over the last three years
suggests that a new market level is being established which will remain steady
in the years immediately following the end of the current forecast period.
Five major companies dominate this market. In order, they
are Thales, Raytheon, Eurotorp, BAE Systems and Lockheed Martin. Together they
account for $8,206.7 billion in value, or about 47.2 percent of the total
market. The largest share of the market sampling (obviously not counted in the
47.2 percent) is held by the Multi-Contractors category with 43.3 percent.
Together with the five companies listed above, this means that 90.5 percent of
the Undersea Warfare Market is absorbed. The significance here is that the
Multi-Contractor category is primarily composed of consortia containing one or
more of the same five companies, typically performing long-term research and
development.
"Overall, this market overview presents a picture of
consolidation in terms of value and contraction in terms of numbers of
participants," said Stuart Slade, Senior Naval Analyst at Forecast
International. "The industry is falling back on a few national centers of
excellence, primarily the U.S., U.K., France, and Germany."
The increasing value of the undersea warfare market suggests
that the future is bright for companies that know how to take advantage of a
small, steady supply of orders on the export scene. The days of a large number
of small niche companies operating in this sector, each exploiting an area of
expertise, are long gone. Now, it is difficult to determine where one company
ends and another begins. Instead of a sharp division of corporate
responsibilities and accountability, programs tend to be attributed to a
shadowy world of partial ownerships, shared interests, and multinational
consortia. While many famous names remain, their existence is often nominal or
a marketing convenience. In a very real sense, there are only two competitors
in the undersea warfare market today: Multi-Contractors-USA and
Multi-Contractors-Europe.
Forecast
International, Inc., is a leading provider of Market Intelligence and Analyses
in the areas of aerospace, defense, power systems and military electronics.
Based in Newtown, CT, USA, Forecast International specializes in long-range
industry forecasts and innovative marketing presentations, including regular
10-year forecasts. To arrange an interview with Forecast International's analysts,
please contact Monty Nebinger (203-426-0800, monty.nebinger@forecast1.com).
