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Contact: Rich Henderson

Phone: (203) 426-0800

Fax: (203) 426-4262

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E-mail: rich.henderson@forecast1.com

Forecast International, Inc.

22 Commerce Rd., Newtown, CT  06470 USA

 

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

 

GE & Rolls-Royce Win Boeing 7E7 Engine Battle

NEWTOWN, Conn. – In a much-awaited development, Boeing has announced its selection of General Electric and Rolls-Royce to provide new-generation engines for its upcoming 7E7 Dreamliner transport.  No doubt because of the importance of this series, Boeing has chosen to depend on evolved versions of the Rolls-Royce Trent powerplant and General Electric's GE90-based Gen-X, rather than on Pratt & Whitney's new PW-EXX.  The Rolls and GE designs are supported by years of proven in-service reliability, while also incorporating improvements in specific fuel consumption, noise signatures and exhaust emission levels.

A preliminary analysis of the market for 7E7s powered by GE and Rolls engines indicates that demand will be split fairly evenly between the two engine builders, based on the buying patterns of airlines and leasing companies purchasing comparable in-service platforms.  Forecast International anticipates sales of about 254 Dreamliners during the 2007-2013 period.

GE will benefit from this contract in part because it will finance advancement of the Gen-X (which stands for GE Next Generation) into the production phase, setting the stage for the new engine to succeed the hugely successful, but aging, CF6 series.  For its part, Rolls-Royce will reap similar rewards, producing a no-bleed-air engine (now called the Trent 1000) for the new Boeing, with the potential for development of a bleed-air variant aimed at other markets.

Pratt & Whitney's already-eroded share of the large commercial engine market will shrink further, though several product lines (including military and business jet engines) will sustain the company at essentially constant sales levels through much of the next decade.  Technology developed for the 7E7 engine could be used to improve elements of the PW4000, but without an aircraft application and the requisite customer base, a new core will not be forthcoming.  Pratt will continue to profit from its civil-engine partnership with Rolls (on the IAE V2500), and will share a slim but growing market for the Engine Alliance GP7200 with partner GE.

Long-term benefits to the two winners could also include places aboard the Boeing 747 Advanced.  Motivating all three engine makers during this contest was Boeing's plan to allow only the two winning 7E7 contenders to compete for the possible 747 variant, though production of the slightly stretched aircraft is far from assured at present.  The Dreamliner itself is expected to generate engine orders valued at about $40 billion over the next 25 years. 

Forecast International, Inc., is a leading provider of market intelligence and analyses in the areas of aerospace, defense, power systems and military electronics.  Based in Newtown, CT, USA, Forecast International specializes in long-range industry forecasts and innovative marketing presentations, including regular 10-year forecasts.  To arrange an interview with Forecast International's analysts, please contact Monty Nebinger (203-426-0800, monty.nebinger@forecast1.com).