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REGIONAL AIRCRAFT MARKET STABILIZING; LONG-TERM GROWTH PROJECTED
Sep 23, 2016
FORECAST INTERNATIONAL: INSATIABLE DEMAND FOR DATA AND CONNECTIVITY DRIVE COMMERCIAL SATELLITE MARKET
Sep 12, 2016
GLOBAL DEFENSE MARKET ON UPSWING AS ASIA SPEARHEADS GROWTH
Sep 08, 2016
FROM CIVIL DISOBEDIENCE TO TOTAL WAR – THE FLOW OF INFORMATION REMAINS PROFITABLE
Sep 01, 2016
FORECAST INTERNATIONAL: 15-YEAR WORLD AVIATION GAS TURBINE MARKET WORTH A STAGGERING $1.2 TRILLION
Aug 22, 2016
FORECAST INTERNATIONAL PROJECTS NAVAL RADAR MARKET WORTH MORE THAN $13 BILLION OVER 10 YEARS
Jul 18, 2016
SMALLSATS PLAY GROWING ROLE IN $29 BILLION REMOTE SENSING SATELLITE MARKET
Jul 13, 2016
FORECAST INTERNATIONAL: F-35 LIGHTNING II TO DOMINATE FIGHTER MARKET
Jul 12, 2016
FORECAST INTERNATIONAL PROJECTS $2.74 TRILLION LARGE JETLINER MARKET OVER NEXT 10 YEARS
Jul 11, 2016
FORECAST INTERNATIONAL EXPECTS AIRBUS AND BOEING BACKLOGS WILL DECLINE IN 2016
Jun 16, 2016
U.S. NAVY'S NEXT-GEN JAMMER TO LEAD 10-YEAR, $5 BILLION ELECTRONIC ATTACK MARKET
Jun 06, 2016
ELECTRONICS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LANDSCAPE, WHILE SLEP LOOMS AS A PRIORITY FOR THE FIGHTER/ATTACK/TRAINER R&M MARKET
May 09, 2016
FORECAST INTERNATIONAL SEES SYRIAN CONFLICT DRIVING NEIGHBORS' SECURITY POSTURES
Mar 28, 2016
U.S. DEFENSE ELECTRONICS – SIGNS OF GROWTH AS BUDGETS REMAIN TIGHT
Mar 21, 2016
FORECAST INTERNATIONAL: CHANGES IN COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE HIGHLIGHT MEDIUM/HEAVY MILITARY ROTORCRAFT MARKET
Feb 22, 2016
FORECAST INTERNATIONAL INTRODUCES DYNAMIC NEW SITE; SEES BRIGHT FUTURE FOR POWER & ENERGY MARKETS
Dec 08, 2015
BIZJET PROSPECTS BRIGHTEN AS U.S. CUSTOMERS RETURN TO THE MARKET
Nov 17, 2015
REGIONAL AIRCRAFT MARKET READY FOR TAKEOFF
Nov 09, 2015

Press Release

Contact: Raymond Jaworowski, Senior Aerospace Analyst
Phone: (203) 426-0800
Web site: www.forecastinternational.com
E-mail: ray.jaworowski@forecast1.com
Forecast International, Inc.
22 Commerce Rd. Newtown, CT 06470 USA

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Far-reaching Change Under Way in Large Airliner Market

PARIS [June 20, 2011] — Forecast International has released a new study projecting that a total of 13,869 large commercial jet transports will be produced from 2011 through 2020. The Connecticut-based market research firm estimates the value of this production at $1.8 trillion in constant 2011 U.S. dollars.

The new study details the changing landscape of the large jetliner market. This market has been dominated by Airbus and Boeing ever since the latter company absorbed McDonnell Douglas in the late 1990s. For most of this time, the Airbus/Boeing duopoly has been virtually unchallenged. However, new competitors are now looking to take market share away from the two giant manufacturers.

This new competition is found in the narrowbody segment of the market, where products such as the Bombardier CSeries, the Comac C919, and the Irkut MC-21 have appeared. The CSeries is a family of 100-145 seat airliners sized to compete at both the top end of the regional jet market and the lower end of the large airliner market.

In response to the increased competition (particularly the CSeries), Airbus launched the A320neo (New Engine Option) family in late 2010. Slated for service entry in 2015, the A320neo is a family of re-engined variants of Airbus' existing A320 series narrowbody airliners.

The launch of the A320neo has placed Boeing in a difficult position. Not enthusiastic about re-engining its 737 narrowbody, the U.S. company is instead leaning toward introduction of an all-new narrowbody for service entry in the 2019-2020 timeframe. Boeing expects to make a decision by early 2012.

Boeing has indicated that, should it decide to pursue development of a new narrowbody, the aircraft would be somewhat larger than the current 737. Forecast International senior aerospace analyst Raymond Jaworowski said, "How Boeing sizes its all-new narrowbody would have repercussions on the market as a whole. If the new Boeing aircraft is sized from 145 or 150 seats up, this would leave the 125-150 seat segment to Airbus' A319 and A319neo, Bombardier's CSeries, and possibly a new aircraft from Embraer."

Meanwhile, the widebody segment of the large airliner market will continue to be largely a contest between Airbus and Boeing. The latter's new 787 is getting ready to enter service, following a protracted series of schedule delays. Airbus' response to the 787 is the new A350 XWB, which should follow the 787 into service by a couple of years. The A350 also targets Boeing's 777, and Boeing has some decisions to make as to how to protect the 777's market share from encroachment by the A350. Possible responses could include upgrading or replacing the 777 and launching a stretched variant of the 787.

The global airline industry returned to profitability in 2010, after two years of net financial losses. The turnaround was spurred by robust (though geographically uneven) growth in air traffic and strong improvement in yields. Nevertheless, high operating costs are squeezing airline profits, and optimism about the market must be tempered by a number of other concerns. These include the still fragile nature of the general economic recovery (especially in Europe and North America), the impact of taxes and regulations on the airline industry, and the ability (and willingness) of airlines to maintain capacity discipline as air traffic continues to grow.

Forecast International, Inc. (http://www.forecastinternational.com) is a leading provider of Market Intelligence and Analysis in the areas of aerospace, defense, power systems and military electronics. Based in Newtown, Conn., USA, Forecast International specializes in long-range industry forecasts and market assessments used by strategic planners, marketing professionals, military organizations, and governments worldwide. To arrange an interview with Forecast International’s editors, please contact Ray Peterson, Vice President, Research & Editorial Services (203) 426-0800, ray.peterson@forecast1.com. Proprietary Special Research is also available. Contact Jonathan Watson, Managing Director, The Forecast Consulting Group (j.watson@forecast1.com). Questions regarding Sales may be directed to sales@forecast1.com.



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