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FORECAST INTERNATIONAL: ELECTRICAL GENERATION GAS TURBINES WILL SEE SALES INCREASE, BUT OVERCAPACITY LOOMS
Dec 05, 2017
FORECAST INTERNATIONAL: MARINE GAS TURBINE EVOLUTION SLOW BUT STEADY
Nov 29, 2017
FORECAST INTERNATIONAL: BIZJET MARKET RECOVERY ON THE HORIZON
Nov 08, 2017
FORECAST INTERNATIONAL PROJECTS $22.2 BILLION LIGHT MILITARY ROTORCRAFT MARKET OVER 15 YEARS
Oct 24, 2017
FORECAST INTERNATIONAL PREDICTS $213 BILLION REGIONAL MARKET OVER 15 YEARS
Sep 26, 2017
FULL SPEED AHEAD FOR ANTI-SHIP MISSILE MARKET
Sep 13, 2017
AIRCRAFT CARRIERS MARK GROWTH OF REGIONAL NAVIES
Sep 12, 2017
TWO SHIP COLLISIONS RAISE QUESTIONS
Aug 24, 2017
RISING TENSIONS IN THE KOREAN PENINSULA HIGHLIGHT THAAD MISSILE'S KEY ROLE
Aug 10, 2017
FORECAST INTERNATIONAL LAUNCHES IMPROVED U.S. DEFENSE BUDGET DATABASE
Aug 08, 2017
FORECAST INTERNATIONAL: BOEING ON A ROLL; BOTH CIVIL AND MILITARY MARKETS REMAIN STRONG
Aug 01, 2017
DEFENSE FIRMS SEE STRONG GROWTH POTENTIAL AS UPSWING BEGINS
Jul 18, 2017
COMMERCIAL COMSAT MAKERS CASHING IN ON HOT MARKET
Jul 12, 2017
FORECAST INTERNATIONAL: 15-YEAR WORLD AVIATION TURBOSHAFT MARKET WORTH $34 BILLION
Jun 20, 2017
FORECAST INTERNATIONAL PREDICTS $4.15 TRILLION LARGE JETLINER MARKET OVER 15 YEARS
Jun 19, 2017
FOLLOWING U.S. ATTACK ON SYRIAN AIR BASE, FI OFFERING DETAILED TOMAHAWK CRUISE MISSILE REPORT
Apr 07, 2017
POLITICS TO AFFECT SHAPE OF U.S. DEFENSE ELECTRONICS MARKET
Mar 28, 2017
FORECAST INTERNATIONAL: HIGHER DEFENSE BUDGETS LIKELY TO GIVE MEDIUM/HEAVY MILITARY ROTORCRAFT MARKET A LIFT
Mar 07, 2017
FORECAST INTERNATIONAL ISSUES 'LAUNCH VEHICLES: YEAR IN REVIEW 2016.' STAGE SET FOR RENEWED ACTIVITY IN 2017
Jan 30, 2017
FPSO CONSTRUCTION POWERING MECHANICAL DRIVE MARKET
Dec 13, 2016
ROLLS-ROYCE RULES THE NAVAL GAS TURBINE MARKET
Dec 12, 2016

Press Release

Contact: Stuart Slade, Defense Analyst
Phone: (203) 426-0800
Fax: (203) 426-4262
Web site: www.forecastinternational.com
E-mail: stu.slade@forecast1.com
Forecast International, Inc.
22 Commerce Rd. Newtown, CT 06470 USA

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Cheonan Sinking Stirs New Interest in Coastal Submarines


NEWTOWN, Conn. [January 24, 2011] — According to Forecast International’s "The Market for Submarines" analysis, the torpedoing and sinking of the South Korean corvette Cheonan in March 2010 by a North Korean coastal submarine will prompt a surge of interest in small, low-cost submarines. The corvette was specifically designed for operations in littoral waters and built with full knowledge of the threat spectrum she would face. Yet, she was blown in half by a torpedo she never saw coming. The force multiplier effect was clearly evident here.

"The Cheonan was designed to provide an economical asset for patrolling coastal waters, but the submarine used to sink her cost an order of magnitude less – and that submarine got away with her attack cold," said warships analyst Stuart Slade, author of the report. "It is quite clear which was the most cost-effective asset in this particular scenario."

It is likely that the sinking of the Cheonan will cause a surge in the market for small, coastal submarines. These low-cost, quick-to-build and economical-to-operate submarines offer small navies with the means to threaten those who intrude upon their territorial waters. Until recently, the capabilities of such submarines were neglected as attention focused on their ocean-going sisters. With the destruction of the Cheonan, this is likely to change. The question is whether the shipbuilding companies will be able to exploit this altered perception.

Western submarine builders have attempted to produce small coastal submarines but, with few exceptions, these have never enjoyed any significant success. Russian offerings of small derivatives of their Project 877 and 677 class diesel-electric boats have also met with scant success. The reason is that these boats have tried to package the capability of the larger submarines into a small hull. This is a technological challenge of daunting dimensions and, in solving it, the defining characteristic of the small coastal – its low cost – is lost.

"If the changed perception of the coastal submarine is to be exploited, the requirement is to build a low-cost submarine that makes no pretext of challenging its larger cousins in quality terms but instead requires a minimum investment in resources and personnel to operate," said Slade. He added that such submarines would exploit a gap in the market but require existing Western submarine teams to break decades of acquired design habits. If they do not do so, Slade said, the coastal submarine market will go to Chinese and possibly Russian producers.

Forecast International, Inc. (http://www.forecastinternational.com) is a leading provider of Market Intelligence and Analysis in the areas of aerospace, defense, power systems and military electronics. Based in Newtown, Conn., USA, Forecast International specializes in long-range industry forecasts and market assessments used by strategic planners, marketing professionals, military organizations, and governments worldwide. To arrange an interview with Forecast International’s editors, please contact Ray Peterson, Vice President, Research & Editorial Services (203) 426-0800, ray.peterson@forecast1.com. Proprietary Special Research is also available. Contact Jonathan Watson, Managing Director, The Forecast Consulting Group (j.watson@forecast1.com). Questions regarding Sales may be directed to sales@forecast1.com.



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