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REGIONAL AIRCRAFT MARKET STABILIZING; LONG-TERM GROWTH PROJECTED
Sep 23, 2016
FORECAST INTERNATIONAL: INSATIABLE DEMAND FOR DATA AND CONNECTIVITY DRIVE COMMERCIAL SATELLITE MARKET
Sep 12, 2016
GLOBAL DEFENSE MARKET ON UPSWING AS ASIA SPEARHEADS GROWTH
Sep 08, 2016
FROM CIVIL DISOBEDIENCE TO TOTAL WAR – THE FLOW OF INFORMATION REMAINS PROFITABLE
Sep 01, 2016
FORECAST INTERNATIONAL: 15-YEAR WORLD AVIATION GAS TURBINE MARKET WORTH A STAGGERING $1.2 TRILLION
Aug 22, 2016
FORECAST INTERNATIONAL PROJECTS NAVAL RADAR MARKET WORTH MORE THAN $13 BILLION OVER 10 YEARS
Jul 18, 2016
SMALLSATS PLAY GROWING ROLE IN $29 BILLION REMOTE SENSING SATELLITE MARKET
Jul 13, 2016
FORECAST INTERNATIONAL: F-35 LIGHTNING II TO DOMINATE FIGHTER MARKET
Jul 12, 2016
FORECAST INTERNATIONAL PROJECTS $2.74 TRILLION LARGE JETLINER MARKET OVER NEXT 10 YEARS
Jul 11, 2016
FORECAST INTERNATIONAL EXPECTS AIRBUS AND BOEING BACKLOGS WILL DECLINE IN 2016
Jun 16, 2016
U.S. NAVY'S NEXT-GEN JAMMER TO LEAD 10-YEAR, $5 BILLION ELECTRONIC ATTACK MARKET
Jun 06, 2016
ELECTRONICS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LANDSCAPE, WHILE SLEP LOOMS AS A PRIORITY FOR THE FIGHTER/ATTACK/TRAINER R&M MARKET
May 09, 2016
FORECAST INTERNATIONAL SEES SYRIAN CONFLICT DRIVING NEIGHBORS' SECURITY POSTURES
Mar 28, 2016
U.S. DEFENSE ELECTRONICS – SIGNS OF GROWTH AS BUDGETS REMAIN TIGHT
Mar 21, 2016
FORECAST INTERNATIONAL: CHANGES IN COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE HIGHLIGHT MEDIUM/HEAVY MILITARY ROTORCRAFT MARKET
Feb 22, 2016
FORECAST INTERNATIONAL INTRODUCES DYNAMIC NEW SITE; SEES BRIGHT FUTURE FOR POWER & ENERGY MARKETS
Dec 08, 2015
BIZJET PROSPECTS BRIGHTEN AS U.S. CUSTOMERS RETURN TO THE MARKET
Nov 17, 2015
REGIONAL AIRCRAFT MARKET READY FOR TAKEOFF
Nov 09, 2015

Press Release

Contact: Stuart Slade, Defense Analyst
Phone: (203) 426-0800
Fax: (203) 426-4262
Web site: www.forecastinternational.com
E-mail: stu.slade@forecast1.com
Forecast International, Inc.
22 Commerce Rd. Newtown, CT 06470 USA

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Cheonan Sinking Stirs New Interest in Coastal Submarines


NEWTOWN, Conn. [January 24, 2011] — According to Forecast International’s "The Market for Submarines" analysis, the torpedoing and sinking of the South Korean corvette Cheonan in March 2010 by a North Korean coastal submarine will prompt a surge of interest in small, low-cost submarines. The corvette was specifically designed for operations in littoral waters and built with full knowledge of the threat spectrum she would face. Yet, she was blown in half by a torpedo she never saw coming. The force multiplier effect was clearly evident here.

"The Cheonan was designed to provide an economical asset for patrolling coastal waters, but the submarine used to sink her cost an order of magnitude less – and that submarine got away with her attack cold," said warships analyst Stuart Slade, author of the report. "It is quite clear which was the most cost-effective asset in this particular scenario."

It is likely that the sinking of the Cheonan will cause a surge in the market for small, coastal submarines. These low-cost, quick-to-build and economical-to-operate submarines offer small navies with the means to threaten those who intrude upon their territorial waters. Until recently, the capabilities of such submarines were neglected as attention focused on their ocean-going sisters. With the destruction of the Cheonan, this is likely to change. The question is whether the shipbuilding companies will be able to exploit this altered perception.

Western submarine builders have attempted to produce small coastal submarines but, with few exceptions, these have never enjoyed any significant success. Russian offerings of small derivatives of their Project 877 and 677 class diesel-electric boats have also met with scant success. The reason is that these boats have tried to package the capability of the larger submarines into a small hull. This is a technological challenge of daunting dimensions and, in solving it, the defining characteristic of the small coastal – its low cost – is lost.

"If the changed perception of the coastal submarine is to be exploited, the requirement is to build a low-cost submarine that makes no pretext of challenging its larger cousins in quality terms but instead requires a minimum investment in resources and personnel to operate," said Slade. He added that such submarines would exploit a gap in the market but require existing Western submarine teams to break decades of acquired design habits. If they do not do so, Slade said, the coastal submarine market will go to Chinese and possibly Russian producers.

Forecast International, Inc. (http://www.forecastinternational.com) is a leading provider of Market Intelligence and Analysis in the areas of aerospace, defense, power systems and military electronics. Based in Newtown, Conn., USA, Forecast International specializes in long-range industry forecasts and market assessments used by strategic planners, marketing professionals, military organizations, and governments worldwide. To arrange an interview with Forecast International’s editors, please contact Ray Peterson, Vice President, Research & Editorial Services (203) 426-0800, ray.peterson@forecast1.com. Proprietary Special Research is also available. Contact Jonathan Watson, Managing Director, The Forecast Consulting Group (j.watson@forecast1.com). Questions regarding Sales may be directed to sales@forecast1.com.



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