Press Release
Contact: Bill Dane, Senior Aerospace Analyst
Phone: (203) 426-0800
Fax: (203) 426-4262
Web site: www.forecast1.com
E-mail: bill.dane@forecast1.com
Forecast International, Inc.
22 Commerce Rd. Newtown, CT 06470 USA
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
EADS Expected to Lead Growing Military Trainer Market
NEWTOWN, Conn. [April 21, 2004] ― Military fixed-wing
trainer deliveries will rise steadily through this decade, according to a
market overview issued by Forecast International, and will total 2,238
shipments worth $17.5 billion during the 2004-2013 timeframe. In light of the
tactical aircraft re-equipment cycle now under way by many major air arms, the
need to address some long-postponed trainer requirements is receiving new
impetus.
Quantitatively speaking, the U.S. Navy/Air Force Raytheon
T-6A will be the most significant trainer during the next 10 years, with 693
deliveries projected for the U.S. services and export customers. No other type
comes close – the EADS Mako and BAE Hawk, both advanced jet trainers, are
expected to account for 260 and 250 shipments, respectively.
The newest market entry is the EADS Mako, which has not yet
flown. The Mako design will offer a supersonic capability, and as the aircraft
is still in the development stage, it could be designed to dovetail with
upcoming requirements. Forecast International has projected the Mako to win
the anticipated Advanced European Jet Pilot Training (AEJPT) competition, despite
stiff competition from Aermacchi's M‑346. The AEJPT contest is aimed at developing
a common trainer type for 12 nations which have been conducting joint studies
intermittently for about 10 years. About 150 aircraft would be required should
the AEJPT program go forward. As the Mako falls under the EADS umbrella, it may
be a tough candidate to unseat, politically speaking.
The Korea Aerospace KT-1 turboprop and the same company's
T/A-50 jet are both being marketed outside Korea, thus far without success.
The Sino-Pakistani HAIG/PAC team is another fairly recent newcomer, and is
developing the K-8 jet trainer for both nations' air forces.
Among the former Warsaw Pact manufacturers, Yakovlev and MiG
report very modest orders from the Russian Air Force, with the MiG-AT also
expected to be built in Poland to fill a trainer requirement of that country.
The Czech Republic's Aero Vodochody is locked in a dispute with Boeing, which
bought into Aero several years back, over marketing issues with the L‑159.
That aircraft has yet to post its first export sale and its future appears far
from bright.
Forecast International aviation analyst Bill Dane believes
that the next generation of advanced jet trainers will almost certainly be
products of joint ventures. The T-38 and Hawk replacements will be designed
for pilots who must transition to combat jets with performance never before
seen. According to Dane, "No single company could afford to develop such a
trainer because of the limited and protected market: those countries that
develop and subsequently purchase the next-generation fast combat aircraft." He
further notes that the shrinking force structures of Europe and America may
compel nations to cooperate on the next-generation advanced jet trainers.
In the years ahead, manufacturers seeking to carve out a
respectable share of this market will also have to weigh the cost of
incorporating a light attack capability into their candidate aircraft for a
broader market appeal against offering a competitively priced design which will
adequately meet a given air arm's training needs.
Forecast International is projecting EADS to dominate this
market with a 22 percent market share on sales of $4.8 billion. The
pan-European manufacturer will be trailed by Raytheon, BAE Systems, and the
Korea Aerospace/Lockheed team.
Forecast International, Inc., is a leading provider of
Market Intelligence and Analyses in the areas of aerospace, defense, power
systems and military electronics. Based in Newtown, CT, USA, Forecast
International specializes in long-range industry forecasts and innovative
marketing presentations, including regular 10-year forecasts. To arrange an
interview with Forecast International's analysts, please contact Monty Nebinger
(203-426-0800, monty.nebinger@forecast1.com).
