Press Release

Contact: John S. Edwards, Space Systems Editor

Phone: (203) 426-0800

Fax: (203) 426-4262

Web site: www.forecastinternational.com

E-mail: john.edwards@forecastinternational.com

Forecast International, Inc.

22 Commerce Rd. Newtown, CT  06470 USA

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Comsat Manufacturers Hoping to Dodge Economic Downturn

NEWTOWN, Conn. [July 27, 2009] — In a new study, “The Market for Commercial Communications Satellites: 2009-2018,” Forecast International is projecting deliveries of approximately 262 commercial communications satellites destined for geostationary or medium-Earth orbit, worth $38.7 billion, during the next 10 years. The low-Earth-orbiting (LEO) market, comprising satellites primarily for the provision of mobile communi­cations, will see production of 142 spacecraft worth about $2.7 billion.  Most of the LEO spacecraft forecast for production are in response to the solidification of fleet replacement plans for ORBCOMM and Globalstar.

“The demand for high-definition television services and mobile satellite services will serve to load the order books for satellite manufacturers globally during the next 10 years,” said John Edwards, Forecast International Space Systems Editor.  He added, “There will be a slight spike over the next 36 months, with purchases tapering off somewhat in subsequent years.” Twenty-five spacecraft were ordered in 2008, a slight increase over the 23 ordered in 2007. Early indications for 2009 point to a solid year for commercial communications satellite orders.

In spite of a highly unfavorable dollar exchange rate, European manufacturers are holding their own in the commercial communications satellite market. Looking ahead, there should be 20 to 25 orders per year on the open market over the next five years.  More than two-thirds of these orders – about 69 percent – will be replacement satellites for existing fleets.  The remainder will be for new operators or new applications in the industry.  Thales Alenia Space, and the company’s Spacebus series, will continue to maintain a healthy share of the communications satellite market in the near term.  Keeping with the trend toward longer-lasting communications spacecraft, much of the production in the latter half of the decade is expected to shift over to the Spacebus 4000 platform. Of the 20 to 25 satellites per year, European manufacturers Astrium and Thales Alenia are expected to capture four or five each. 

The main rivals to the European heavyweights are Space Systems/Loral and Orbital Sciences.  Loral, offering its 1300 platform, addresses the large commercial satellite market, while Orbital Sciences' STAR platform courts the smaller commercial satellite market.  Space Systems/Loral expanded its manufacturing capacity to address near-term increased satellite demand by reaching an agreement to use Northrop Grumman's satellite test facilities and services in Redondo Beach, California. Some operators are choosing to order satellites weighing less than 3,000 kilograms in a trend that bodes well for Orbital Sciences, and the outlook for its STAR platform is solid.

Manufacturers Lockheed Martin and Boeing are primarily focused on the U.S. military satellite market. What will be interesting to see is what happens when several defense programs like GOES, GPS, Mobile User Objective System (MUOS) and others are completed.  Theoretically, the completion of these programs will free Boeing and Lockheed Martin to pursue more commercial work.  Forecast International expects this will be the case, and in the 2014 timeframe we should see these two heavyweights back in the commercial game in a big way.

Overall, most sectors of the aerospace industry either are experiencing a sharp decline in business or are anticipating one.  However, despite the global economic downturn, commercial satellite operators can expect continued growth. While growth for the operators does not always translate into busy production lines for satellite manufacturers, Forecast International expects all of the large operators to order plenty of spacecraft during the next 10 years.

Forecast International, Inc. (www.forecastinternational.com) is a leading provider of Market Intelligence and Analysis in the areas of aerospace, defense, power systems and military electronics.  Based in Newtown, Conn., USA, Forecast International specializes in long-range industry forecasts and market assessments used by strategic planners, marketing professionals, military organizations, and governments worldwide.  To arrange an interview with Forecast International’s editors, please contact Ray Peterson, Vice President, Research & Editorial Services (203)-426-0800, ray.peterson@forecast1.com.