FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Forecast International: Higher Defense Budgets Likely to Give Medium/Heavy Military Rotorcraft Market a Lift
NEWTOWN, Conn. [March 7, 2017] — Forecast International's Platinum Forecast System 3.1 indicates that a total of 6,175 medium/heavy military rotorcraft will be produced during the 15-year period from 2017 through 2031. The value of this production is estimated at $158.4 billion (in FY17 dollars). Forecast International defines a medium/heavy military rotorcraft as one having a gross weight of at least 6,804 kilograms (15,000 lb).
Global instability is sparking a resurgence in defense spending in several countries. This includes the U.S., where the new administration has come to office promising to rebuild the country's armed forces. In a number of nations, higher defense budgets are likely to result in the acceleration of certain fleet modernization plans.
In the U.S., the effect on rotorcraft acquisition could be a bit more muted, as the U.S. military rotorcraft fleet is already several years into its current modernization cycle, and other areas of the defense budget (such as fighter procurement or shipbuilding) may be viewed as having higher priority. Still, annual U.S. procurement lots of military rotorcraft may increase somewhat, even if total program buys remain largely unchanged.
The longer-term outlook for the medium/heavy military rotorcraft market is even more promising. Driving the market in the post-2030 timeframe will be the U.S. military's Future Vertical Lift (FVL) project. The FVL effort involves development of a new rotorcraft family to meet future U.S. attack, scout, and utility rotorcraft needs.
Current U.S. Army thinking on the FVL project involves selection of a different platform to meet each of five different FVL categories or Capability Sets. This opens the door to the possibility of the FVL program generating multiple opportunities for rotorcraft manufacturers. And, according to Forecast International senior aerospace analyst Raymond Jaworowski, "the various FVL models can be expected to garner not only sizable orders from the U.S. military, but also significant orders from export customers."
In terms of manufacturer market shares, Russian Helicopters is projected to lead the market in unit production during the 2017-2031 timeframe, followed by Sikorsky, Avicopter of China, Boeing, Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI), and NH Industries. The Russian consortium's number one position is bolstered by substantial production of its popular Mi-8/17 line of multirole helicopters. When the market is measured in terms of monetary value, the 15-year projections show Sikorsky in the lead in value of production, followed by Russian Helicopters, Boeing, NH Industries, the Bell/Boeing V-22 partnership, and Avicopter.
The Platinum Forecast System 3.1 is a breakthrough in forecasting technology that enables the creation of customized market assessments based on proprietary Forecast International production forecasts and data. With the use of the Platinum system, clients can quickly identify both market risk and future opportunities. System types and platforms, national currencies, geographic regions, and more can all be input into the system as criteria in order to create distinct market segments for evaluation. And all data are complemented by full market reports, Forecast Rationales, Excel spreadsheets, and more.
About Forecast International
Forecast International, Inc. is a leading provider of Market Intelligence and Analysis in the areas of aerospace, defense, power systems and military electronics. The firm, which publishes eight International Military Market services, also maintains a high posture of situational awareness and geopolitical analysis. Based in Newtown, Conn., USA, Forecast International specializes in long-range industry forecasts and market assessments used by strategic planners, marketing professionals, military organizations, and governments worldwide. Forecast International's resources and extensive base of experience can also be readily adapted and efficiently focused to fulfill a broad spectrum of civil and military consulting and special research requirements.
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