Contact: Raymond Jaworowski, Senior Aerospace Analyst
Phone: (203) 426-0800
Fax: (203) 426-4262
Forecast International, Inc.
22 Commerce Rd. Newtown, CT 06470 USA
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Forecast International Projects $2.74 Trillion Large Jetliner Market Over Next 10 Years
FARNBOROUGH INTERNATIONAL AIRSHOW [July 11, 2016] – As the world aerospace industry gathers for the 2016 Farnborough International Airshow, Forecast International has issued a new study, "The Market for Large Commercial Jet Transports," in which the Connecticut-based market forecasting firm projects that a total of 17,129 large commercial jetliners will be produced from 2016 through 2025. The value of this production is estimated at $2.74 trillion in constant 2016 U.S. dollars.
Airbus and Boeing are projected to divide the market almost equally between them. Boeing is forecast to produce 8,164 large commercial airliners during the 10-year forecast period, representing a 47.7 percent share of the market. Airbus is projected to build 8,107 aircraft, for a market share of 47.3 percent.
The Forecast International study indicates, though, that beneath this near equality of results lies the fact that Airbus and Boeing are each somewhat better positioned than the other in different sectors of the market. During the forecast timeframe, Airbus has an edge in the narrowbody, or single-aisle, portion of the market, due mainly to the fact that the re-engined A320neo has entered service and is already ramping up production, while deliveries of its direct competitor, the Boeing 737 MAX, will not begin until 2017. Boeing, meanwhile, has the edge in the widebody, or twin-aisle, sector. This advantage is largely the result of the popularity of the company's 777 family, which has been enhanced by the launch of the new 777X models.
The dominance of Airbus and Boeing in the large jetliner market effectively constitutes a duopoly, though an unusually competitive one. The two manufacturers constantly engage in a series of moves and countermoves, looking to gain some advantage over the other in various portions of the market.
According to Forecast International senior aerospace analyst Raymond Jaworowski, "Airbus and Boeing have largely set out their respective product strategies for the next 10 to 15 years, and the focus of the two companies is now necessarily turning from product development to program execution."
Nevertheless, Jaworowski adds, "Airbus and Boeing still have some decisions to make regarding product strategy. Airbus has to determine whether it needs to counter the 777X with a larger A350 version. And Boeing has to decide whether and how to respond in the middle of the market to the Airbus A321LR."
A handful of other companies also compete in the large jetliner market, including Canada's Bombardier, China's COMAC, and Russia's UAC. Their challenge to Airbus and Boeing comes mainly in the narrowbody sector with such aircraft as the Bombardier CS300, the COMAC C919, and the UAC/Irkut MC-21.
Forecast International's market projections indicate that production of large commercial jetliners will rise from 2016 through 2020. Annual production is forecast to increase from 1,420 aircraft in 2016 to 1,878 in 2020. A cyclical downturn is expected in the 2021-2022 timeframe, with output falling to 1,680 aircraft in 2021 and 1,630 in 2022. However, production is projected to resume rising in 2023, with annual output reaching 1,864 aircraft by 2025.
Forecast International representatives will be available during the Farnborough International Airshow (Hall 1/C140) to demonstrate the company's extensive line of Aerospace & Defense Market Intelligence products, including the Platinum Forecast System® 2.0.
About Forecast International
Forecast International, Inc. is a leading provider of Market Intelligence and Analysis in the areas of aerospace, defense, power systems and military electronics. Based in Newtown, Conn., USA, Forecast International specializes in long-range industry forecasts and market assessments used by strategic planners, marketing professionals, military organizations, and governments worldwide. Forecast International's resources and extensive base of experience can be readily adapted and efficiently focused to fulfill a broad spectrum of civil and military consulting and special research requirements.
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22 Commerce Rd. Newtown, CT 06470 USA