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FORECAST INTERNATIONAL: BIZJET MARKET RECOVERY ON THE HORIZON
Nov 08, 2017
FORECAST INTERNATIONAL PROJECTS $22.2 BILLION LIGHT MILITARY ROTORCRAFT MARKET OVER 15 YEARS
Oct 24, 2017
FORECAST INTERNATIONAL PREDICTS $213 BILLION REGIONAL MARKET OVER 15 YEARS
Sep 26, 2017
FULL SPEED AHEAD FOR ANTI-SHIP MISSILE MARKET
Sep 13, 2017
AIRCRAFT CARRIERS MARK GROWTH OF REGIONAL NAVIES
Sep 12, 2017
TWO SHIP COLLISIONS RAISE QUESTIONS
Aug 24, 2017
RISING TENSIONS IN THE KOREAN PENINSULA HIGHLIGHT THAAD MISSILE'S KEY ROLE
Aug 10, 2017
FORECAST INTERNATIONAL LAUNCHES IMPROVED U.S. DEFENSE BUDGET DATABASE
Aug 08, 2017
FORECAST INTERNATIONAL: BOEING ON A ROLL; BOTH CIVIL AND MILITARY MARKETS REMAIN STRONG
Aug 01, 2017
DEFENSE FIRMS SEE STRONG GROWTH POTENTIAL AS UPSWING BEGINS
Jul 18, 2017
COMMERCIAL COMSAT MAKERS CASHING IN ON HOT MARKET
Jul 12, 2017
FORECAST INTERNATIONAL: 15-YEAR WORLD AVIATION TURBOSHAFT MARKET WORTH $34 BILLION
Jun 20, 2017
FORECAST INTERNATIONAL PREDICTS $4.15 TRILLION LARGE JETLINER MARKET OVER 15 YEARS
Jun 19, 2017
FOLLOWING U.S. ATTACK ON SYRIAN AIR BASE, FI OFFERING DETAILED TOMAHAWK CRUISE MISSILE REPORT
Apr 07, 2017
POLITICS TO AFFECT SHAPE OF U.S. DEFENSE ELECTRONICS MARKET
Mar 28, 2017
FORECAST INTERNATIONAL: HIGHER DEFENSE BUDGETS LIKELY TO GIVE MEDIUM/HEAVY MILITARY ROTORCRAFT MARKET A LIFT
Mar 07, 2017
FORECAST INTERNATIONAL ISSUES 'LAUNCH VEHICLES: YEAR IN REVIEW 2016.' STAGE SET FOR RENEWED ACTIVITY IN 2017
Jan 30, 2017
FPSO CONSTRUCTION POWERING MECHANICAL DRIVE MARKET
Dec 13, 2016
ROLLS-ROYCE RULES THE NAVAL GAS TURBINE MARKET
Dec 12, 2016
FORECAST INTERNATIONAL RELEASES VERSION 3.1 OF ITS PLATINUM FORECAST SYSTEM
Dec 07, 2016

Press Release

Forecast International Sees Syrian Conflict Driving Neighbors' Security Postures

NEWTOWN, Conn. [March 28, 2016] — A third round of Syria political negotiations has begun in Geneva, but the conflict in Syria remains a key security concern for the country's neighbors.

Syria's neighbors foresee instability along their borders for the immediate future. Regardless of the results of the negotiations, Iraq's fight to regain its territory from the so-called Islamic State (IS) will continue on, while the other countries will maintain a cautious approach to the non-state actors on their borders.

"Israel has to contend with Hezbollah activity near the Golan Heights, which is of primary concern," said FI's Middle East Analyst, Derek Bisaccio. "At the same time, the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) needs to keep a close eye on the Yarmouk Martyrs Brigade, an Islamic State affiliate that controls part of the border with Israel and has recently gained ground against rebel factions in the area."

Turkey, Jordan, and Lebanon all have Islamic State or affiliate groups on their borders with Syria. Lebanon's border includes territory controlled by al-Qaeda's Syrian branch, which has carried out terror attacks inside Lebanese cities. Ankara is worried about the expansion of the Kurdish People's Protection Units, whose political wing, the Democratic Union Party (PYD), recently voted along with other local parties to create a federal zone in northern Syria.

To address the instability, Forecast International expects that of the five countries bordering Syria, four will spend more on defense in 2016 than in 2015. The defense expenditures of Lebanon, Turkey, and Jordan will increase by a combined average of 2.85 percent. Iraq's defense budget could see a jump of over 12 percent.

Israel, meanwhile, will spend slightly less this year compared to the previous year, but over Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon's firm objections. Officially, the Defense Ministry will receive around ILS56 billion ($14.4 billion). Ya'alon was able to negotiate to receive more in allocations after arguing that the official amount was insufficient.

The scope of the security threat and the varied types of hardware required to respond to the threat together ensure that military acquisitions will be a priority for these countries.

"Iraq's procurements will focus on equipping the Army with light and medium weapons, and also on acquiring demining devices to clear improvised explosive devices left behind in places like Ramadi," noted Bisaccio. "For Jordan, the military can utilize newly acquired helicopters, such as Cobra combat helicopters and Black Hawks, to further protect its borders from militant groups."

European Union and American defense firms, in particular, will benefit from sales as Syria's neighbors seek to increase their readiness and capabilities. Following Moscow's intervention in the Syrian conflict, Russian systems may also see increased attention.

"Russian officials have touted the Syrian campaign as demonstrating the effectiveness of their military systems in a modern conflict," said Bisaccio. "Russian fighter jets and other aircraft aided the Syrian Army in taking ground in Aleppo, Latakia, Daraa, and elsewhere in the country. Moscow's T-90 tanks, meanwhile, proved far more resilient than the Syrian Army's vehicles to the anti-tank guided missiles in the hands of militant groups."

Even if a political solution can be reached in Geneva, the situation in Syria is likely to remain unstable. IS still controls large amounts of territory and al-Qaeda group Jabhat al-Nusra is unlikely to lay down its arms. The PYD's declaration of a federal zone is at odds with both the government and the opposition. These factors continue to make Syria a potential destabilizer for the region, necessitating higher defense expenditures and more military procurements out of its neighbors.


About Forecast International

Forecast International, Inc. is a leading provider of Market Intelligence and Analysis in the areas of aerospace, defense, power systems and military electronics. Based in Newtown, Conn., USA, Forecast International specializes in long-range industry forecasts and market assessments used by strategic planners, marketing professionals, military organizations, and governments worldwide. Forecast International's resources and extensive base of experience can be readily adapted and efficiently focused to fulfill a broad spectrum of civil and military consulting and special research requirements.


Contact Information
Ray Peterson
Vice President, Research & Editorial Services
Forecast International
22 Commerce Rd. Newtown, CT 06470 USA
(203) 426-0800
ray.peterson@forecast1.com.



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