Press Release
Contact: John S. Edwards, Space Systems Editor
Phone: (203) 426-0800
Fax: (203) 426-4262
Web site: www.forecastinternational.com
E-mail: john.edwards@forecastinternational.com
Forecast International, Inc.
22 Commerce Rd. Newtown, CT 06470 USA
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Comsat Market Picking Up but U.S.
Market Share Eroding
NEWTOWN, Conn. [] — In a new
study, “Commercial Communications Satellites, 2007-2016,” Forecast
International is projecting deliveries of approximately 218 commercial communications
satellites destined for geostationary or medium-Earth orbit worth $26 billion
during the next 10 years. The low-Earth-orbiting (LEO) market, comprising
satellites primarily for the provision of mobile communications, will see
production of 69 spacecraft worth about $927 million. Most of the LEO
spacecraft production forecast is attributable to the solidification of fleet
replacement plans for ORBCOMM and Globalstar.
“The global satellite
communications industry strengthened last year, with fixed-satellite services
showing continued growth in North America and Europe and signs of a rebound in
Asia and South America,” said John Edwards, Forecast International Space
Systems Editor. To meet the demand, 27 geostationary commercial communications
satellites were ordered in 2006, up from 19 in 2005. “This spike in
contracting activity was a welcome turnaround in the satellite manufacturing
sector; however, Forecast International believes most players in the U.S.
sector of this market should withhold their optimism,” said Edwards.
The most notable story coming out
of the United States in the commercial satellite manufacturing sector is the
continued rise of Space Systems/Loral. For the third consecutive year,
SS/Loral posted solid additions to its order book, besting results from the two
previous years. Consumer confidence in the unit is strong since its emergence
from the ashes of Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection by its parent company, Loral
Space & Communications. The six orders placed with SS/Loral in 2006
represent 54 percent of the U.S. market share.
The market share for the U.S.
satellite manufacturing sector has eroded by about 30 percent over the last
three years. In 2004, 75 percent of all the commercial communications
satellites ordered globally went to three U.S. companies, while just three
satellite orders went to non-U.S. manufacturers. In 2005, 63 percent went to U.S.
manufacturers and the remaining went to companies outside the U.S., including
one to China. In 2006 just 40 percent went to U.S. manufacturers. The
remaining went to manufacturers outside the U.S., including one order to China.
The increasing power of
satellites and the number of transponders available to consumers have been
matched up with longer service lives. This has, ironically, decreased the
demand for the commercial communications satellites at a time when demand for
satellite services is increasing. “Data compression technology is also serving
to maximize the efficiency of transponders, which could also drive production
down,” said Edwards.
“This trend could be partially
counterbalanced, as the ongoing saga of satellite operator consolidation, long
anticipated to reduce overall satellite procurement and demand, has been
tempered by the emergence of new satellite operators,” Edwards said, adding, “for
almost every merger or acquisition that occurs in this sector, a new player
emerges to fill the chasm.” Beyond this production there is a considerable satellite
replacement market available to manufacturers, and this will serve to keep
satellite orders at a minimum annual level of about 15 spacecraft for the next
several years.
Forecast International, Inc., is a leading provider of
Market Intelligence and Analysis in the areas of aerospace, defense, power
systems and military electronics. Based in Newtown, Conn., USA, Forecast
International specializes in long-range industry forecasts and market
assessments used by strategic planners, marketing professionals, military
organizations, and governments worldwide. To arrange an interview with
Forecast International’s editors, please contact Ray Peterson, Vice President,
Research & Editorial Services (203-426-0800, ray.peterson@forecast1.com).
