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Contact: Dan Darling, European Defense Analyst

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Forecast International, Inc.

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FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Belarus’ Arms Trade Raises Questions

NEWTOWN, Conn. [June 11, 2007] — Despite a limited domestic defense industrial base, the isolated European nation of Belarus continues to rank among the world’s leading arms exporters, causing degrees of both perplexity and anxiety among U.S. and European officials. Weapons exports – particularly to developing nations – are considered to be a lucrative source of income for the country, according to Forecast International’s new Belarus Military Markets report. 

The greatest concern regarding Belarus’ arms exports is where they end up: in the hands of fellow isolated states or “rogue regimes” and in conflict-ridden hotspots. According to the U.S. Congressional Research Service, from 1998 through 2005 the country ranked 11th in the world in deliveries of arms to developing nations with $1.1 billion in deliveries. The recipients of these deliveries have included Yemen, Sudan, China, Iran, Pakistan, Sierra Leone, the Ivory Coast, Congo, Algeria, and Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, as well as conflict areas in the Balkans, the Adjara region of Georgia, and the Palestinian territories.

The question of how Belarus is able to sustain such an outward flow of defense material leads to greater conjecture. Its domestic arms manufacturing base still performs maintenance and upgrades on some Soviet-era equipment and Russian aviation equipment, but altogether lacks the broad production capabilities of other large defense exporting nations. While the Belarusian defense sector includes some 30 industrial plants and 15 research and design bureaus (all operating under the aegis of Goskomvoenprom, the state military-industrial committee), it generally produces components rather than entire hardware such as aircraft or missiles.  

In addition, Belarus’ Soviet-era stocks should theoretically have run dry by now. At the same time, such weaponry has become increasingly obsolete in the face of defense technological advancements, leaving Minsk a customer base of sidelined actors and isolated states that are otherwise cut off from most suppliers.

“Because the end of the Cold War effectively shut down the Soviet arms pipeline into the former Warsaw Pact countries of Eastern Europe, weapons-exporting nations of the former USSR such as Russia and Belarus have been forced to turn to alternate markets, particularly ones that either are shunned by Western exporters due to diplomatic circumstances, or are former Soviet arms-buying clients,” said Forecast International European Military Markets Analyst Dan Darling. “Where the West is unwilling to go – for instance, at the current time, Sudan – Belarus is more than happy to fill the gap. For Belarus, these are reliable markets largely devoid of direct competition.”

Selling arms to such objectionable partners is of no inconvenience to Belarus, whose political leadership has been subject to travel bans by the European Union and the U.S.   Belarus’ autocratic President Alexander Lukashenko has been accused of stifling both media and political dissent and using used the secret police (still known as the KGB) to intimidate foes. The former collective farm manager has imposed a state-controlled Soviet-style economy on the country, and repeatedly rages against Western democracies and the NATO Alliance.

While harboring goals of becoming the eventual leader of a hypothetical Russia-Belarus union state, Lukashenko has begun building closer relations – including militarily – with China, Iran and Venezuela. Military and technical contracts worth $250 million have been completed over the past 10 years between China and Belarus, and Chinese officers train at Belarusian military academies. On January 22, 2007, a Memorandum of Understanding on defense cooperation was signed with Iran. And in March of 2007, Minsk publicly offered to sell Venezuela the SA-3 Goa and SA-8 Gecko surface-to-air missile systems through its domestic Tetraedr firm.

Still, relations with Russia take precedent, and it is through Russia that many analysts suspect Belarus is able to carry on its lucrative arms trade. With a weapons development base that is lacking, the primary assumption has been that Russia works as the supplier and Belarus acts as the conduit for further delivery.

The hypothesized arrangement itself works perfectly for both parties, with Russia as supplier – reaping the benefits of steady, reliable markets shut off from the West – and Belarus providing the political cover. Lukashenko in turn gets a substantial portion of profits – profits that serve to alleviate domestic pressures, line his personal pockets, and cement his power. Belarusian opposition politicians claim today that the profit in this fund accumulates by $1 billion annually through the arms trade and that Lukashenko conceals part of this in his personal bank accounts, thus begging the question: How else could Belarus sustain high arms export figures on the world market other than through a steady Russian pipeline?

“The trouble for the U.S. and its European allies in dealing with Minsk is that Belarus presents a difficult case,” Darling points out. “Regardless of how unsavory they view the Lukashenko regime, the fact of the matter is that Belarus has not engaged in warfare on its neighbors, has no aggressive territorial designs, and, from what is known, does not harbor or train any terrorist groups within its borders.”

“Shutting the tap off its arms exports will only happen if Russia closes the valve,” Darling adds, “ultimately leaving Belarus’ stocks to eventually dry up. And despite some recent strains in the Russia-Belarus relationship, we don’t foresee that scenario happening anytime soon.”

Forecast International, Inc., is a leading provider of Market Intelligence and Analysis in the areas of aerospace, defense, power systems and military electronics. Based in Newtown, Conn., USA, Forecast International specializes in long-range industry forecasts and market assessments used by strategic planners, marketing professionals, military organizations, and governments worldwide.  To arrange an interview with Forecast International’s editors, please contact Ray Peterson (203-426-0800, ray.peterson@forecast1.com).