Press Release

Contact: Dean Lockwood, Weapons Systems Analyst

Phone: (203) 426-0800

Fax: (203) 426-1964

Web site: www.forecastinternational.com

E-mail: dean.lockwood@forecast1.com

Forecast International, Inc.

22 Commerce Rd. Newtown, CT  06470 USA

 

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

M1 Abrams Modernization & Retrofit Approaches
Worldwide Spending on New Tanks

 

NEWTOWN, Conn. [March 6, 2007] ― In its annual analysis “The Market for Tanks,” the Forecast International Weapons Group projects that the international market will produce over 7,600 main battle tanks, worth in excess of $31.5 billion, through 2016. However, while increased modernization and retrofit remains transparent to this analysis of new-production tanks, this factor is becoming a significant force in the international market.

 

Dean Lockwood, Weapons Systems Analyst at Forecast International, notes that “in 2006, U.S. Department of Defense contract awards for the maintenance, RESET, and upgrade of the existing M1 Abrams inventories carried a total value in excess of $2.514 billion.” That was equivalent to a staggering 79.156 percent of the total value of all new-production main battle tanks entering the international market in 2006 (nearly $3.176 billion). Last year, the Chinese Type 98 program maintained its position as the single largest new-production program. Yet, with a total value of $375.32 million (for 110 new-production tanks), the Type 98 program was worth less than 15 percent what the U.S. DoD spent on the M1 Abrams in 2006.

 

The expense associated with the modernization and retrofit of high-end main battle tanks pales in comparison with the prospect of new tank procurement. Thus, FI believes new production of high-end tanks will remain relatively low, accounting for 13.96 percent of all production, worth 20.14 percent of the market, through the forecast period.

 

In terms of sheer numbers, Forecast believes Pakistan’s Al Khalid, the Type 98 of the People’s Republic of China, and the Russian Federation’s T-90 will maintain their combined market share, accounting for 44.96 percent of all new tanks rolling out worldwide, worth 39.86 percent of the market, through 2016.

 

In the international market for main battle tanks, the days of U.S. and European domination of new production appear to be long gone. Nevertheless, the established U.S. and European players continue to make their presence felt. The 120mm Rh 120 smoothbore ordnance, the state-of-the-art Leopard 2, and the combat-proven M1A1/A2 Abrams continue to set the standard for main battle tank design worldwide.

 

Second only to the infantryman in terms of combat effectiveness, the “mailed fist” of heavy armor remains the arm of decision on the modern battlefield. To comprehend the advantages of heavy armor, one need only ask the survivors of the late Iraqi Army, who faced the onslaught of the U.S. 3rd Infantry Division (Mechanized) during its “Thunder Run” to Baghdad in 2003. Further, as Operation Iraqi Freedom (2003-present) evolved from a war of movement into a series of ongoing security operations, the main battle tank proved surprisingly adaptable. According to Lockwood, “In the congested streets of Iraqi cities, the Abrams serves as a significant force multiplier, fully up to meeting the challenges of an asymmetric warfare environment.” 

 

Forecast International, Inc., is a leading provider of Market Intelligence and Analysis in the areas of aerospace, defense, power systems and military electronics.  Based in Newtown, Conn., USA, Forecast International specializes in long-range industry forecasts and market assessments used by strategic planners, marketing professionals, military organizations, and governments worldwide.  To arrange an interview with Forecast International’s editors, please contact Ray Peterson, Vice President, Research & Editorial Services (203-426-0800, ray.peterson@forecast1.com).