Press Release

 

Contact: Dan Darling, European Defense Analyst

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FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Serbia Slowly Pushes Toward NATO Integration

NEWTOWN, Conn. [Jan. 29, 2007] — The European nation of Serbia will continue moving closer to Euro-Atlantic structures in the coming year – particularly the NATO Alliance – despite social and political difficulties facing the country, according to a new Forecast International Military Markets report. The past year saw the final death knell of the former Yugoslavia as the loose union between Serbia-Montenegro began dissolving following a Montenegrin referendum. The Serbian government promptly declared independence on June 5, 2006, and in late October voted in favor of a new constitution.

 

The long-term goals of the Serbian government are accession into the European Union – which it hopes to achieve by 2012 – and full membership in the NATO Alliance. Since 2001, the country has undergone democratic and military reforms and moved forward on a path of reconciliation and eventual integration with the West. A short-term goal of being invited into NATO’s Partnership for Peace (PfP) program was achieved at the Alliance’s November 2006 summit in Riga, Latvia. For Serbia, the inclusion into PfP – essentially a framework for practical cooperation between NATO and countries aspiring to join the Alliance – marks a key first step toward greater Euro-Atlantic integration.

 

Serbia had already fulfilled the required conditions for joining PfP prior to the last NATO summit in 2004 at Istanbul, Turkey. All except one: capturing and turning over Ratko Mladic (as well as Radovan Karadzic) to the International War Crimes Tribunal at The Hague. The continuing failure by Belgrade to achieve this requirement has already led to a suspension of membership talks with the EU.

 

But NATO members are wary of allowing Serbia to be swayed by Russian influence and sensitive to the susceptible position of Serbia’s democratic political parties in the face of potential far-right Radical Party gains in coming national elections. In consideration of these concerns, they chose to show Serbia the value of cooperating within its neighborhood and overlooked the Mladic issue. With the likely granting of conditional independence to the autonomous Serbian province of Kosovo by the international community following Serb elections, this was a practical step to assuage social and political wounds in Belgrade.

 

“The U.S. and the greater European community are aware of the internal challenges facing Serbia over the coming Kosovo decision,” says Forecast International European Analyst Dan Darling, “and the last thing they want is to place more demands at the feet of Belgrade without showing them some tangible benefits of their cooperation.”

 

While the political issues remain to be solved, gains at reforming the Serbian military and bringing it under greater civilian control have certainly been made. Recognition of the results of these reforms came in the fall of 2006 when U.S. President George W. Bush decided to lift the ban on Serbia’s participation in U.S. military training programs. In early October 2006, the Serbian Army completed the transition to a newly formed special brigade which is fully professional and consists of 900 personnel. This force will be crucial going forward in Serbian efforts to contribute to NATO operations and U.N. peacekeeping missions, which the Defense Ministry foresees as essential aspects of the armed forces future.

 

A new Strategic Defense Review, released in July 2006, states that the future armed forces will be fully professionalized and consist of four infantry brigades. Annual defense spending by 2015 is expected to reach 2.4 percent of Serbian gross domestic product, higher than the NATO minimum requirement of 2 percent of GDP (which the majority of Alliance members already fail to achieve). And by 2010 the armed forces are projected to total some 21,000 personnel.

 

Concerning defense material, the Serbian Defense Ministry has made a commitment to upgrading its air defense fleet, signing a contract worth some $25 million in December with Russia’s MiG concern for the overhaul of its five MiG-29 aircraft (four single-seat MiG-29 Fulcrum As and one two-seat MiG-29UB Fulcrum B). In addition, the Defense Ministry has set aside funds for further upgrades to other equipment, with Russia again being asked to help. The projects include repairs of and upgrades to two Mi-24V attack helicopters ($5 million), two Mi-17 assault helicopters ($3.5 million), three Mi-8 assault helicopters ($1.2 million), and one An-26 transport aircraft ($0.75 million).

 

“For Serbia’s trans-Atlantic ambitions, this year will likely prove to be decisive,” says Darling. “The loss of Kosovo will hit many Serbs hard, but if the government wants to eventually be part of trans-Atlantic structures it will have to accept the decision of the international community.”

 

Meanwhile, the NATO Alliance will continue watching Serbia’s efforts concerning the Mladic issue very closely. Any eventual membership invitation will hinge on Belgrade’s cooperation in bringing Mladic to justice. But Serbia has shown its ability to reform its military and, going forward, it should be expected that Belgrade will deploy its forces under NATO mandates, thereby showcasing its willingness to contribute to the Alliance.

 

“Practically speaking, in the end neither the EU nor NATO desire an isolated and frustrated Serbia,” Darling adds. “This would leave an unstable situation in the heart of southeastern Europe, and after the Bosnian and Kosovo wars of the 1990s the last thing either entity wants is more instability in their backyard.”

 

Forecast International, Inc., is a leading provider of Market Intelligence and Analysis in the areas of aerospace, defense, power systems and military electronics. Based in Newtown, Conn., USA, Forecast International specializes in long-range industry forecasts and market assessments used by strategic planners, marketing professionals, military organizations, and governments worldwide.  To arrange an interview with Forecast International’s editors, please contact Ray Peterson (203-426-0800, ray.peterson@forecast1.com).