NEWTOWN, Conn., Nov. 8 /PR Newswire/ --

According to Forecast International/DMS, the Latin American defense market continues to be low-key, with the focus mainly on building for the future in the procurement area. The trend of minimal levels of change in military spending from year to year is still prevalent, as the budget battles of the 1990s are becoming less evident. Forecast International continues to show a gradual rise from 2000’s level of $28.1 billion for total military spending (only about 20 percent of which may actually be available for procurement spending of all types) to 2005’s level of $32.2 billion, reflecting the general perception that as economies continue to improve, funding for military budgets will be easier to find. Meanwhile, the military and civilian sectors continue to work out their mutual relationships in the new environment of civilian control.

As the region’s militaries focus more on what are considered more proper roles for them, there is also a broad move toward professionalization of the forces, as well as developing national strategic doctrines and development plans for the armed forces. This trend is a consequence of the end of both the Cold War and the Persian Gulf War. The end of the former left a big void in what kind of enemy to plan for, while the latter war showed the region’s militaries just how technologically behind many were.

Thus, the last decade has been a period of examination of priorities for Latin American militaries. The reduced defense budgets spurred a trend toward "force multiplier’ equipment that is capable of multiple roles. Also a trend has been the procurement of systems being made redundant by the NATO powers, in particular, as a source of arms. This equipment is still fairly up-to-date and viable. However, by the end of the decade the best of this equipment had pretty much been hived off by the major powers and what was left was often not very desirable. The more evident trend now in Latin America is the procurement of newer systems that may not necessarily be "bleeding edge" but are still advanced enough to be useful for decades. The newer equipment is much more cost-effective to use and maintain, and also can act as a recruitment incentive for professional military candidates. However, the militaries are also being forced to justify their requests for the new equipment to the civilian leadership, and the case sometimes needs to be made better or more forcefully.

As the new millennium begins, the region’s militaries are trying to prepare themselves for the unknown. Certainly surveillance is a major priority, both over land and at sea. Over land, it is the ability to monitor one’s airspace and deny its use to illegal flights. This means either airborne or land-based radars, and patrol aircraft to intercept illegal flights. Over water, illegal flight interception is also a priority, but enforcement of Exclusive Economic Zones is also a critical concern. More and newer patrol boats are a big need area, as well as riverine patrol craft to monitor traffic entering or leaving coastal zones. Helicopters have always been big sellers in the region and will continue to be so, with the added proviso that helicopter gunships are attracting more attention.

With the new millennium there are also emerging threat scenarios. What has many Latin American governments particularly worried is the potential for Colombia’s insurgencies and drug trafficking to spill over into neighboring countries. Of major concern in this regard is Colombia’s "Plan Colombia" to reassert control over drug production areas of the country and to deny the rebels their main source of income. The US is playing a major part in the plan by providing helicopters and training. The fear of neighboring countries is that a crackdown in Colombia will cause a massive refugee flow into them, as well as a wave of rebel movements seeking sanctuary. All of Colombia’s neighbors are reinforcing their border areas and increasing security assets and spending.

Forecast International/DMS Inc., is the leading provider of Market Intelligence and Analysis in the areas of aerospace, defense, power systems and military electronics. Based in Newtown, CT, USA, Forecast International specializes in long-range industry forecasts and is renowned for innovative marketing presentations, including regular 10-year forecasts. For exclusive live or phone interviews with the analysts, please contact Monty Nebinger for an appointment (monty.nebinger@forecastl .com, 203-426-0800, ext. 140) SOURCE Forecast International/DMS Inc.