NEWTOWN, Conn. - Orbital Sciences has conducted the first two operational resupply mission to the International Space Station (ISS) in 2014. These missions will be the primary driver of Antares launch vehicle sales during the forecast period. The Antares carries the Cygnus cargo resupply vehicle to the ISS under the Commercial Resupply Services (CRS) program.
Although the CRS contract will end in 2015, ISS partner-nations are planning to extend the station's life to at least 2020. This will ensure a need for cargo transfer vehicles, such as the Cygnus, and drive production of the Antares launch vehicle until at least 2020. There has been some talk of extending the stations life beyond 2020, however, tension between the U.S. and Russia over Ukraine may preclude that.
Orbital Sciences is also marketing the Antares for other applications. The company has asserted that the launch vehicle's size and price make it ideal for launching medium-weight satellites, particularly low-Earth-orbiting remote sensing satellites. While the Antares will face competition from other medium-class launch vehicles, Forecast International expects Antares will receive at least a few contracts to launch satellites during the forecast period. It has even been added to the NASA Launch Services II (NLS II) program, a contracting mechanism that allows NASA to select from a number of launch vehicles to launch its spacecraft.
Forecast International expects Antares production to continue at a low but steady rate over the forecast period. The first flight took place in April 2013. Another flight, carrying Cygnus, is expected later in the year. Flights will continue at a rate of about two to three per year after 2013. Antares will be produced primarily to meet ISS resupply needs, but will also be used by other NASA and U.S. Air Force missions. Once the ISS retires, these other missions will become the primary driver of sales.
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